COVID-19 Compilation: Part 22 - August 9-15, 2020
On March 14th, I began posting daily updates to my facebook page, regarding the status of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a backbone for this, I have used data from worldometers. I had no particular plan at the time, but as things have evolved I have kept going at one post per day, eventually settling on a more or less standard format and one topic per day.
This blog post compiles the period of August 9th through August 15th. I have corrected some typos, augmented with links to original sources, and used some basic html to improve formatting; otherwise these are presented as-is from the original posts.see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more.
AUGUST 9:
There were 219,598 new cases worldwide today, including 47,849 in the USA. The new cases worldwide bring the overall number, per worldometer, over 20 million cases overall.
There were 4,798 deaths worldwide today, including 534 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 20.02 million cases and 733,607 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 5.20 million cases and 165,617 deaths.
In world news:
Brazil surpassed 100,000 deaths yesterday, as the virus continues essentially unchecked there.
On the other extreme, New Zealand had its 100th consecutive day without community spread of the virus today. There are 22 active cases in New Zealand, all isolated from international travelers.
Yesterday I noted that there were 7,176 COVID-19 deaths in the USA for the week ending August 8th, a decline of 9% week-over-week. Deaths were down 13% in Florida, and 21% in Texas. the two states that have had the most deaths in recent weeks.
To put US deaths in perspective, I created the attached table, showing the highest per capita death rates by state in the USA for the past week, along with the 10 countries outside the USA (at least one million population) with the highest death rates per capita.
As the table shows, there were 5 states -- Mississippi, Louisiana, Arizona, Florida, South Carolina, that had more deaths per capita last week than any country in the world. All 5 are "sun belt" states that voted Republican in 2016; 4 have Republican governors. In addition, 9 of the 10 countries with the most deaths this past week, are in the Americas.
Cumulatively, there have now been 20.02 million cases and 733,607 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 5.20 million cases and 165,617 deaths.
In world news:
Brazil surpassed 100,000 deaths yesterday, as the virus continues essentially unchecked there.
On the other extreme, New Zealand had its 100th consecutive day without community spread of the virus today. There are 22 active cases in New Zealand, all isolated from international travelers.
Yesterday I noted that there were 7,176 COVID-19 deaths in the USA for the week ending August 8th, a decline of 9% week-over-week. Deaths were down 13% in Florida, and 21% in Texas. the two states that have had the most deaths in recent weeks.
To put US deaths in perspective, I created the attached table, showing the highest per capita death rates by state in the USA for the past week, along with the 10 countries outside the USA (at least one million population) with the highest death rates per capita.
As the table shows, there were 5 states -- Mississippi, Louisiana, Arizona, Florida, South Carolina, that had more deaths per capita last week than any country in the world. All 5 are "sun belt" states that voted Republican in 2016; 4 have Republican governors. In addition, 9 of the 10 countries with the most deaths this past week, are in the Americas.
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| Top per capita death rates in the USA and world, week ending August 8, 2020 |
AUGUST 10:
There were 209,823 new cases worldwide today, including 49,800 in the USA.There were 4,341 deaths worldwide today, including 569 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 20.24 million cases and 737,899 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 5.25 million cases and 166,192 deaths.
Arizona had more than 1,000 new cases every day from June 10th through August 8th. Yesterday, Arizona had 816 new cases, and today Arizona had 600 new cases, the lowest total since June 4th. A month ago, Arizona was averaging more than 3,500 cases per day, and ss recently as July 31st, Arizona had 3,212 cases in a single day.
So, what happened? Dr. Anthony Fauci said, last week, "Arizona went way up and came right down by doing simple things." Per an ABC15 Phoenix report on Friday: "Those simple things Dr. Fauci was talking about included requiring people to wear a mask, maintain social distance, re-close water parks, gyms, bars and movie theaters, and limit crowds to 50 or less. 'You do it prudently and you don't have to shut down,' Fauci said."
Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, mandated masks starting June 19th. The attached table from Maricopa County shows key dates as well as case rates there.
Hospitalizations are down 55% in Arizona since the peak on July 13th, and deaths were down by a third last week from the high set the week of July 18th.
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| Maricopa County, Arizona cases |
AUGUST 11:
There were 266,121 new cases worldwide today, including 54,519 in the USA.There were 6,561 deaths worldwide today, including 1,504 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 20.51 million cases and 744,916 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 5.31 million cases and 167,749 deaths.
Florida and Georgia set new records for COVID-19 deaths today, with 276 and 137, respectively. The overall USA death count was the highest since May 27th.
In the USA, two major collegiate sports conferences, the Big 10 and the Pacific 12, both announced the "postponement" of their collegiate fall sports seasons until spring, 2021.
Per a statement by Big 10 Commissioner Kevin Warren:
“As time progressed and after hours of discussion with our Big Ten Task Force for Emerging Infectious Diseases and the Big Ten Sports Medicine Committee, it became abundantly clear that there was too much uncertainty regarding potential medical risks to allow our student-athletes to compete this fall.
“We know how significant the student-athlete experience can be in shaping the future of the talented young women and men who compete in the Big Ten Conference. Although that knowledge made this a painstaking decision, it did not make it difficult."
Many of the same schools impacted by today's decisions will be welcoming students back to their dorms and classrooms within the next 2 weeks.
AUGUST 12:
There were 285,593 new cases worldwide today, including 54,345 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 20.80 million cases and 746,411 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 5.36 million cases and 169,131 deaths.
There has been a lot of discussion recently about the incidence rate of cases among children. This seems timely, with grade schools re-opening in many states for in person instruction.
A joint report from the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association reported, "97,078 new child cases reported from 7/16-7/30 (241,904 to 338,982), a 40% increase in child cases."
That's a bit misleading; the "40% increase" is the 97,078 as compared to the 241,904 cases that happened before July 16th. It's also true that cases among children (as defined for the study) more than doubled during the full month of July; cases among children have been rising faster than for the overall population.
There are other inherent deficiencies in the data: the study relied on state data, and the definition of "child" varies across states from 0-14 in some states to 0-20 in others. Also, due to lack of applicable data, the study excludes state-wide New York data (New York City is included), as well as most Texas and Alabama data, and of course it also excludes children who were not tested and confirmed. In all, the study considered about 3.8 million cases, out of about 4.6 total USA cases as of July 30th.
The case rate of 446 cases per 100,000 children as of July 30th, was less than one third of the case rate for the overall population. Test data is shown for only 8 states, and positivity rates in those states are in line with their total populations; this suggests that the lower case rate is likely due in part to lower testing rates among children. 20 states showed reported no child deaths.
Child cases as a percent of new cases were between 10.5% and 13.3% for the last 8 weeks of the study.
The table below shows the number of child cases by week, for the period of the study.
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| Child Cases be week in the USA, from AAP and CHA study. |
AUGUST 13:
There were 272,858 new cases worldwide today, including 55,364 in the USA.There were 6,361 deaths worldwide today, including 1,284 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 21.07 million cases and 752,767 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 5.42 million cases and 170,415 deaths.
Hawaii had a new record for COVID-19 cases today, and Nevada had a new record for COVID-19 deaths.
Early on in the pandemic, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) published several influential estimates for the final impact of COVID-19 in the United States.
Most prominent among these was a projection put together on April 5th and published on April 8th, that projected a total USA death toll from COVID-19 of 60,415 by August 4th, with a potential range of 31,221 to 126,703.
That projection was immediately ridiculed, as it was reported on the 2nd consecutive day of more than 2,200 US deaths. It took just one week for USA deaths to blow through the 31,221 low end of the estimate range, 20 days to surpass 60,415.
By early May, a Vox headline stated what seemed obvious: "This coronavirus model keeps being wrong. Why are we still listening to it? A model that the White House has relied on has come under fire for its flawed projections." More recently extensive pieces in The New York Times and Vanity Fair have also examined the IHME model and its impact on federal policy.
I have been tracking the CDC Excess Deaths due to COVID-19 data. The most recent update now goes through August 1st. Per the CDC numbers, the USA had somewhere between 164,937 and 223,011 as of August 1st. As more data rolls in, those numbers will likely go up by several thousand.
The IHME is now projecting 295,011 deaths in the USA by December 1, 2020.
AUGUST 14:
There were 277,061 new cases worldwide today, including 60,600 in the USA.There were 5,727 deaths worldwide today, including 1,120 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 21.34 million cases and 762,445 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 5.48 million cases and 171,535 deaths.
Kansas had a new record for COVID-19 cases today.
Michigan had 868 new cases today, thus making Michigan the 18th state to pass 100,000 total cases. Back in April, shortly after I started posting, Michigan was 4th in total cases, behind only New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts. New York is now 4th in cases, New Jersey is 7th, and Massachusetts is 13th.
AUGUST 15:
There were 248,817 new cases worldwide today, including 53,523 in the USA.
There were 5,152 deaths worldwide today, including 1,071 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 21.59 million cases and 767,968 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 5.53 million cases and 172,606 deaths.
The following table summarizes world and USA cases and deaths for the week concluding August 15:
| Location | Cases | Change | Deaths | Change |
| World | 1,819,447 | +1.9% | 40,480 | +0.8% |
| USA | 376,122 | -2.7% | 7,468 | +3.9% |
The attached chart shows the documented deaths in New York and Florida by week, since the start of the pandemic.
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| New York and Florida deaths, by week |
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