COVID-19 Compilation: Part 28 - September 20-October 3, 2020
On March 14th, I began posting COVID-19 updates to my facebook page, regarding the status of the COVID-19 pandemic. I have used data from worldometer as a primary source for daily and cumulative data, with frequent supplementation from various national and local sites.
This blog post compiles the period of September 20th through October 3rd. see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
SEPTEMBER 20
| Today's counts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Total Cases | Cases Today | Total Deaths | Deaths Today |
| World | 31.25 million | 254,983 | 964,885 | 3,960 |
| USA | 7.01 million | 33,344 | 204,118 | 294 |
Per worldometer, the USA passed the 7 million mark for total cases.
Minnesota had a new record for cases on a single day with 1,318.
Standard caveats apply for lower numbers on Sunday.
Minnesota had a new record for cases on a single day with 1,318.
Standard caveats apply for lower numbers on Sunday.
SEPTEMBER 21
| Today's counts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Total Cases | Cases Today | Total Deaths | Deaths Today |
| World | 31.49 million | 231,455 | 969,015 | 4,130 |
| USA | 7.06 million | 36,804 | 204,502 | 384 |
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has been a source of many politicized problems, most obviously with its August 24th announcement that "If you have been in close contact... of a person with a COVID-19 infection for at least 15 minutes but do not have symptoms, you do not necessarily need a test..."
This was compounded last Thursday when the New York Times reported that "CDC Testing Guidance Was Published Against Scientists' Objections," thus confirming what had been widely assumed for the 3 weeks since the guidelines first came out: that they were not guidelines at all, but were, as Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the CDC under President Obama, "like someone vandalizing a national monument with graffiti."
It appears the internecine battles within the CDC have intensified. On Friday the CDC posted guidance about virus transmission, e.g., that it spreads "through respiratory droplets or small particles, such as those in aerosols, produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, sings, talks or breathes." That verbiage was removed today, along with a statement from a CDC spokesman that it had been "posted in error."
SEPTEMBER 22
| Today's counts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Total Cases | Cases Today | Total Deaths | Deaths Today |
| World | 31.77 million | 272,717 | 974,620 | 5,605 |
| USA | 7.10 million | 35,696 | 205,471 | 969 |
In the early months of the pandemic in the United States, the coronavirus cases were largely concentrated in "blue states," i.e., states that leaned Democratic (e.g., had Democratic governors, had voted Democratic in the most recent presidential election, etc.).
In particular due to the early massive outbreak in the New York City area, COVID-19 was treated by many as a "blue state virus." With the July surge in cases across the red Sun Belt states, that changed. But the perception persists. Speaking of COVID-19 deaths last Thursday, President Trump said, "...the blue states had had tremendous death rates. If you take the blue states out, we’re at a level that I don’t think anybody in the world would be at."
I'm attaching two charts here. The first shows the top 10 states, ranked by cases per 1 million population as of May 22nd. At the time, 65% of all cases and 70% of all deaths in the USA had been in "blue states," as measured by who they state voted for in 2016.
9 of the 10 hardest hit states, at that time, were "blue states."
The 2nd chart is the same ranked ordering, as of this evening. As of tonight per the worldometer data, 61% of the cases and 47% of the COVID-19 deaths in the USA have occurred in "red states" per the 2016 election voting (it's 52% and and 41%, respectively, going by the current governors).
All of the top 10 hardest hit states, today, are "red states." Only one of those, Louisiana, has a Democratic governor. Louisiana is the only state that was in the top 10 on May 22nd that's still in the top 10 tonight.
The USA blue state death toll is, indeed, high: On its own it would be 3rd in the world per capita among nations with more than a million people, behind only Belgium and Peru. The top 4 states in deaths, per capita, are all blue states by the 2016 election: New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts and Connecticut, and all of them have more deaths per capita than any nation in the world, of any size.
But the USA red state death toll is now more than 500 per million population, which is higher than all but 12 countries of more than one million population; higher than hard hit countries such as France, Colombia, and Iran, more than double Canada, and more than 4 times as high as Germany.
 |
| USA States- Cases per million population, May 22, 2020 and September 22, 2020 |
SEPTEMBER 23
| Today's counts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Total Cases | Cases Today | Total Deaths | Deaths Today |
| World | 32.09 million | 315,717 | 981,288 | 6,333 |
| USA | 7.14 million | 41,616 | 206,593 | 1,112 |
In the USA, Missouri set a new record for COVID-19 deaths; predictably, it was "blamed mostly on a delay in death certificate data," per a report in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
SEPTEMBER 24
Today is my 195th consecutive nightly, and it'll be the last for a little while. I've learned a lot, and I hope those of you who have been reading more or less regularly have, as well. I'll be off at least until sometime next week, and then we'll see.| Today's counts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Total Cases | Cases Today | Total Deaths | Deaths Today |
| World | 32.40 million | 314,842 | 987,156 | 5,872 |
| USA | 7.19 million | 45,355 | 207,537 | 942 |
Here in the USA, Utah set a new record for cases in a single day with 1,198.
Turning to the overall deaths in the USA: I have periodically shown a graph including the CDC Excess Deaths due to COVID-19 data, available from the CDC website. Currently the CDC estimates there have been between 208,390 and 274,055 excess deaths in the United States this year due to COVID-19 through September 12. Those numbers are updated as death certificate information is evaluated, so data for September is dramatically incomplete (that's why the lower and upper estimate lines in the first graph flatten out in September).
I have also added the worldometer tally of USA deaths. The graphs show that the quasi-official numbers of deaths in the USA due to COVID-19 is almost certainly lower than the actual number of COVID-19 deaths.
 |
| CDC Excess Deaths due to COVID-19 and worldometer death counts, total and by week |
SEPTEMBER 28
after 3 days away... I'm back.I won't be doing this every day, I'm figuring 2 or 3 times a week, so long as they seem to be useful. The weekly blog posts will move to bi-weekly or monthly.
| Today's counts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Total Cases | Cases Today | Total Deaths | Deaths Today |
| World | 33.54 million | 230,547 | 1.01 million | 3,837 |
| USA | 7.36 million | 37,418 | 209,808 | 355 |
- The worldwide death total surpassed one million
- There were more than 1.1 million new cases worldwide
- On September 25th, the USA had its highest single day case total since August 14th
- On September 27th, the USA had its lowest single day death total since July 5th (both dates were Sundays, and standard caveats about Sunday numbers apply)
- There were 137,667 total new cases in the USA
- There were 2,263 COVID-19 deaths in the USA
- Eight USA states set new single day records for new cases. They are:
States with new daily highs for COVID-19 cases, September 24-28, 2020
SEPTEMBER 30
tonight marks the end of another month with COVID-19. With that in mind, here is today's COVID-19 stats update:| Today's counts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Total Cases | Cases Today | Total Deaths | Deaths Today |
| World | 34.15 million | 313,099 | 1.02 million | 6,202 |
| USA | 7.45 million | 40,929 | 211,740 | 955 |
Today, some world synopsis for September. Per worldometer, there were more than 8.4 million cases recorded worldwide in September, a new record. More than 2.6 million of those cases, or 31%, were in India. That's a single-month record for any country.
Among countries with many cases, the UK, France and Israel saw the most dramatic rise in their case rates. Spain had the most dramatic rise in the death rate. The United States and Brazil both had substantial drops in both new cases and deaths, as did Mexico, Colombia and Peru.
The attached chart shows all countries with at least 100,000 new cases or 2,000 COVID-19 deaths during September.
 |
| Countries with at least 100,000 new COVID-19 cases or 2,000 COVID-19 deaths in September, 2020 |
OCTOBER 1
| Today's counts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Total Cases | Cases Today | Total Deaths | Deaths Today |
| World | 34.46 million | 315,031 | 1.03 million | 8,843 (a new single day record) |
| USA | 7.49 million | 47,389 | 212,660 | 920 |
In the USA, Wisconsin set another daily record for new cases, with 2,887.
Last night I looked at world trends for the month of September. Tonight, the USA.
Overall, cases and deaths were down sharply in the USA in September: cases were down 17.0% per day, and deaths were down 19.3% per day. The drop was led mostly by the same states that saw huge surges during the peak summer months: Arizona, Louisiana, Texas, Georgia, Florida and California were all down more than 38% in cases, and more than 20% in deaths.
And yet...
September 20 | September 21 | September 22 | September 23 | September 24 | September 28 | September 30 | October 1 | October 2 | October 3
Shortly after I posted yesterday's update, I saw the news that Hope Hicks, advisor to President Trump, had tested positive for COVID-19.
Just before 1am, as I was watching coverage of the Hicks story, and of President Trump's announcement that he and First Lady Melania Trump would enter "the quarantine process," came the announcement that both the President and First Lady had also tested positive.
Today, President Trump, apparently suffering at least some symptoms of COVID-19, was transported to Walter Reed Hospital. The President also received a dose of an experimental, as-yet unapproved antibody treatment.
Here is just some of what I know, so far:
Many people who attended an event 6 days ago at the White House to nominate Amy Coney Barrett to the vacant seat on the Supreme Court, have tested positive for COVID-19 in the past few days.
September 20 |
September 21 |
September 22 |
September 23 |
September 24 |
September 28 |
September 30 |
October 1 |
October 2 |
October 3
Missouri (3,023), Wisconsin (2,892) and Kentucky (1,274) all set new single-day records for new cases today.
And yet...
- In 27 states, the case rate went up in September, led by Wisconsin, where the case rate more than doubled.
- In 26 states, the death rate went up in September.
 |
| US State Cases and Deaths, September 2020 |
September 20 | September 21 | September 22 | September 23 | September 24 | September 28 | September 30 | October 1 | October 2 | October 3
OCTOBER 2
And then things changed.| Today's counts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Total Cases | Cases Today | Total Deaths | Deaths Today |
| World | 34.83 million | 316,971 | 1.03 million | 5,595 |
| USA | 7.55 million | 52,125 | 213,522 | 862 |
Just before 1am, as I was watching coverage of the Hicks story, and of President Trump's announcement that he and First Lady Melania Trump would enter "the quarantine process," came the announcement that both the President and First Lady had also tested positive.
Today, President Trump, apparently suffering at least some symptoms of COVID-19, was transported to Walter Reed Hospital. The President also received a dose of an experimental, as-yet unapproved antibody treatment.
Here is just some of what I know, so far:
Many people who attended an event 6 days ago at the White House to nominate Amy Coney Barrett to the vacant seat on the Supreme Court, have tested positive for COVID-19 in the past few days.
These include:
The ceremony at the White House featured neither masks nor social distancing, and the people who have subsequently tested positive were observed mingling in close proximity to many other prominent government figures.
Hicks started showing symptoms on Wednesday during a campaign event in Minnesota. She quarantined on the return flight.. but she was still on the plane.
The Hicks positive diagnosis was received Thursday morning. But President Trump still went to New Jersey for a fundraiser *after* that diagnosis came in, where he was described as "lethargic" and "not himself" during the event.
News of Hicks' positive test was announced not by the White House, but by White House pool reporter Jennifer Jacobs on her twitter feed. The New York Times subsequently reported that White House officials "had hoped to keep the news about Ms. Hicks from becoming public."
News of the President and First Lady's test results was also disclosed via twitter, this time from the President's account. People who had interacted with the President recently, such as Vice President Joe Biden and debate moderator Chris Wallace, as well as the attendees of the New Jersey event, all found out via tweet.
A few takeaways:
- President Donald Trump
- First Lady Melania Trump
- Presidential Advisor Hope Hicks
- Senator Mike Lee
- Senator Tom Tillis
- Former Presidential Counselor Kellyanne Conway
- Notre Dame President John Jenkins
- one White House staffer
- three White House journalists
The ceremony at the White House featured neither masks nor social distancing, and the people who have subsequently tested positive were observed mingling in close proximity to many other prominent government figures.
Hicks started showing symptoms on Wednesday during a campaign event in Minnesota. She quarantined on the return flight.. but she was still on the plane.
The Hicks positive diagnosis was received Thursday morning. But President Trump still went to New Jersey for a fundraiser *after* that diagnosis came in, where he was described as "lethargic" and "not himself" during the event.
News of Hicks' positive test was announced not by the White House, but by White House pool reporter Jennifer Jacobs on her twitter feed. The New York Times subsequently reported that White House officials "had hoped to keep the news about Ms. Hicks from becoming public."
News of the President and First Lady's test results was also disclosed via twitter, this time from the President's account. People who had interacted with the President recently, such as Vice President Joe Biden and debate moderator Chris Wallace, as well as the attendees of the New Jersey event, all found out via tweet.
A few takeaways:
- Hope Hicks is almost certainly not the vector; that is, it's very unlikely that she's the one who spread the virus to the Trumps and the other who have been (or will be) diagnosed.
- Donald Trump should have been in quarantine by mid-day Thursday. His decision to continue with the event in New Jersey was reckless and may have severe consequences.
- We have known for some time that disregard for the best medical advise (e.g., social distancing, limits on attendance and density at events, mask wearing) was high risk; now we appear to have direct consequences at the highest level of the federal government.
- Statistically, despite the rapid escalation today of the President's reported condition, it is not likely that he will die from COVID-19. President Trump joins British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro, and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko as world leaders who have been diagnosed with COVID-19. Perhaps not surprisingly, all of the others also had well-earned reputations as being deniers of the severity of the virus: Johnson famously joked about it, Bolsonaro called it a "little flu," and Lukashenko suggested fending it off by drinking vodka. Trump, of course, has repeatedly downplayed the risks of the virus.
- So, one more: The virus doesn't care what anyone thinks.
OCTOBER 3
| Today's counts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Total Cases | Cases Today | Total Deaths | Deaths Today |
| World | 35.18 million | 303,325 | 1.04 million | 4,843 |
| USA | 7.60 million | 50,257 | 214,279 | 757 |
| This Week's counts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Cases This Week | Change | Deaths This Week | Change |
| World | 2.06 million | +1.4% | 34,593 | -1.7% |
| USA | 306,414 | +5.5% | 5,102 | -4.3% |
Comments