COVID-19 Compilation: Part 29 - October 5-11, 2020

On March 14th, I began posting COVID-19 updates to my facebook page, regarding the status of the COVID-19 pandemic. I have used data from worldometer as a primary source for daily and cumulative data, with frequent supplementation from various national and local sites. 

This blog post compiles the period of October 5th through 11th. see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more

October 5 | October 6 | October 7 | October 8 | October 9 | October 10 | October 11

OCTOBER 5

Today's counts
Location	Total Cases	Cases Today	Total Deaths	Deaths Today
World	35.74 million	270,322	1.049 million	4,269
USA	7.68 million	41,601	215,043	426

I've noted previously in my updates that USA numbers have bit of a weekly cycle to them. Monday totals tend to be on the low side as many states are reporting updates from Sunday. Today's USA case numbers are the highest for a Monday since August 10th.

Meanwhile, we have the continuing story of President Trump's case of COVID-19. Sticking mostly to basics, for this post:

On Saturday, September 26th, President Trump announced the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett for the US Supreme Court. The White House festivities included both indoor and outdoor sessions. There was no social distancing at any of the festivities, and very few of the invited guests were masked (people who were there in uniform, as part of their jobs, were all masked).

Several people seated in the first 3 rows of the outdoor festivities have since tested positive for COVID-19. Most of these people also participated in the indoor portion. For example, Senator Tom Tillis, who was photographed outside in a mask, was also photographed inside talking in close quarters, unmasked, with Judge Barrett.

Some of the attendees at the Rose Garden and who subsequently tested positive, also participated in Trump's preparations for Tuesday's debate in Cleveland. Several attendees from Cleveland have also subsequently tested positive. More positive test results are being announced daily.

Hope Hicks first exhibited symptoms on Wednesday. This would be 4 days between the Barrett events and the first known symptoms, a reasonably typical incubation period for COVID-19.

President Trump announced his own results just before 1am on Friday. By late Friday afternoon, the President was transported to Walter Reed hospital. Subsequent reports have indicated that the President's blood oxygen level dropped below 90%, a severe drop (the President's doctor said only that the oxygen levels didn't get down into "the low 80s." Normal is typically 95-100.

While at Walter Reed, the President got in a motorcade so he could wave to supporters assembled in front of the hospital. The standard Secret Service contingent, armed with N95 masks, accompanied him.

This afternoon, President Trump announced his imminent release from Walter Reed. He wrote a tweet saying, among other things, "Don't be afraid of Covid." Alex Berenson, a leading COVID-19 skeptic, immediately wrote, "Maybe the smartest comment @realdonaldtrump has ever made."

This evening, the President returned to the White House where, after ascending the stairs to the 2nd floor, he removed his mask and appeared to be struggling for air. The median hospital stay for COVID-19 patients in the United States has been about 3 weeks. The President stayed for 3 days.

There has been plenty of speculation with respect to the President's condition, even here (e.g., there is no way to know from this evening's video that he was struggling for air due to COVID-19). Indications, however, are that the President is likely ill, and almost certainly contagious.

October 5 | October 6 | October 7 | October 8 | October 9 | October 10 | October 11

OCTOBER 6

Today's counts
Location	Total Cases	Cases Today	Total Deaths	Deaths Today
World	36.05 million	307,441	1.055 million	5,564
USA	7.73 million	43,668	215,851	808

So we're back to talking about the flu again.

At 8:10am this morning the President of the United States, arguably the leader of the free world, posted misinformation suggesting that "sometimes over 100,000... die from the Flu," that Covid "in most populations far less lethal!!!!," and that "we are learning to live with Covid."

Facebook eventually deleted the post and twitter suppressed it, but not before millions saw or reacted to it.

Notwithstanding that approximately 215,000 Americans have died from COVID-19 (depending on whose numbers one cites), and more than a million worldwide, there is the more fundamental fact that numerical data thrown out by the President is simply false.

Flu season, in the United States, starts the week of October 1 and continues through the final week of September the next calendar year. In the flu season just concluded, the USA has registered 9,390 flu deaths. The data is still incomplete, but for sure the final number will be less than 9,500. The grand total of influenza deaths in the USA over the past 7 flu seasons is 55,268. (This data is available from the CDC, at https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/data/NCHSData39.csv)

That's less than the number of COVID-19 deaths in the USA in April.

The 100,000 number is a deception: It is the total of flu deaths + deaths from other causes, most notably pneumonia. Such deaths are commonly referred to as "P&I" -- pneumonia and influenza. In pandemic years such as 1968-69 and 1957-58, both of which stretched over two flu seasons, the grand total of P&I deaths in the USA has been claimed at around 100,000 (the 1968-69 pandemic had two distinct waves and was *not* active in the USA during the warmer summer months, so any posts suggesting that Woodstock was held in the midst of a pandemic may be safely disregarded).

It is worth noting, here, that COVID-19 has now claimed as many American lives as both of those pandemic year P&I totals, combined.

Looking just at influenza: The attached chart is based on the CDC provisional death count numbers starting February 1, 2020. This data may be found at https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Week-Ending-D/r8kw-7aab. Note that the totals are a bit lower than the actual counts; per policy "One or more data cells have counts between 1–9 and have been suppressed in accordance with NCHS confidentiality standards." In Wyoming, for example, we haven't had a week yet with as many as 10 influenza deaths or COVID-19 deaths during the time period. In all such instances the CDC data cell is left blank; I used 1 in such instances since the actual number is guaranteed to be at least that high.

USA provisional death counts by state and cause since February 1, 2020

October 5 | October 6 | October 7 | October 8 | October 9 | October 10 | October 11

OCTOBER 7

Today's counts
Location	Total Cases	Cases Today	Total Deaths	Deaths Today
World	36.39 million	344,198	1.060 million	5,901
USA	7.78 million	49,358	216,781	930

Today's world case total shatters the prior record, set last Friday, by more than 17,000 cases.

Some countries with new single-day highs today:
Country	Cases Today
France	18,746
Argentina	16,447
Czechia	5,338
Netherlands	4,989
Ukraine	4,753
Nepal	3,439
Poland	3,003
Romania	2,958
Morocco	2,776
Tunisia	2,312
Lebanon	1,459
Myanmar	1,400
Moldova	1,062
Slovakia	877
Bulgaria	437
Slovenia	356
In addition:
Germany	3,994 - highest since April 9
Italy	3,678 - highest since April 16

Also: Brazil passed 5 million total cases. 

October 5 | October 6 | October 7 | October 8 | October 9 | October 10 | October 11

OCTOBER 8

Today's counts
Location	Total Cases	Cases Today	Total Deaths	Deaths Today
World	36.74 million	350,004	1.066 million	6,420
USA	7.83 million	57,318	217,738	957

For the 2nd consecutive day, there is a new record for worldwide cases.

Some countries with new single-day highs today:
Country	Cases Today
UK	17,540
Netherlands	5,822
Czechia	5,397
Ukraine	5,397
Iran	4,392
Nepal	4,364
Poland	4,280
Belgium	3,577
Romania	3,130
Morocco	2,929
Tunisia	2,357
Moldova	1,121
Slovakia	1,037
Croatia	542
Bulgaria	516
Slovenia	387
North Macedonia	364
Finland	296
12 of these countries also had single-day highs yesterday. In addition:
Italy	4,458 - highest since April 11
Germany	4,401 - highest since April 9

Worldwide, we might say that the 2nd wave is here.

In the USA, the 1st wave just rolls on. The case number for the USA was the highest since August 14th.

States with new highs for COVID-19 cases today:
State	Cases Today
Arkansas	1,265
North Dakota	527
Utah	1,501
Wisconsin	3,132
Wyoming	193
States with new highs for COVID-19 deaths today:
State	Deaths Today
South Dakota	14
Tennessee	63

October 5 | October 6 | October 7 | October 8 | October 9 | October 10 | October 11

OCTOBER 9

Today's counts
Location	Total Cases	Cases Today	Total Deaths	Deaths Today
World	37.10 million	358,778	1.072 million	5,806
USA	7.90 million	60,983	218,647	909

For the 3rd consecutive day, there is a new record for worldwide cases.

Some countries with new single-day highs today:
Country	Cases Today
France	20,339
Russia	12,126
Czechia	8,617
Netherlands	5,971
Ukraine	5,804
Belgium	5,728
Poland	4,739
Morocco	3,445
Romania	3,186
Myanmar	1,461
Slovakia	1,184
Bulgaria	612
8 of these countries also had single-day highs on each of the past two days. In addition:
Italy	5,372 - highest since March 28
Germany	4,964 - highest since April 8

The United States had more than 60,000 cases for the first time since August 14th. But per capita, the USA wasn't even in the top 25 today. Of countries with at least 500 new cases, here are some selected case rates today:

Country	Cases Rate Today / 1 Million Population
United States	183
UK	204
Armenia	207
Lebanon	209
Slovakia	217
Moldova	228
Costa Rica	240
Israel	274
France	311
Netherlands	348
Belgium	494
Czechia	804

USA States with new highs for COVID-19 cases today:
State	Cases Today
Indiana	1,816
Kansas	1,679
Montana	722
North Dakota	656
Ohio	1,836
South Dakota	774
West Virginia	382
Wyoming	243
States with new highs for COVID-19 deaths today:
State	Deaths Today
North Dakota	11
Missouri	81

Above, I showed the countries with the highest per capita case rates today. Perhaps not surprisingly several US states would have been at the top of that list (or bottom, I guess, as I put it in reverse order).

North Dakota had more cases per capita today than any state had had since the start of the pandemic.

But North Dakota didn't set a new record for cases per capita today. That's because South Dakota had more. It's been 2 months since the Sturgis festival, so maybe it's a stretch to link the event to the astonishing surge there. Maybe.

The attached chart shows the 16 states with highest case rates today. The states have exactly one thing in common, a common theme the past few months.

USA Case rates by state, October 9, 2020

October 5 | October 6 | October 7 | October 8 | October 9 | October 10 | October 11

OCTOBER 10

Today's counts
Location	Total Cases	Cases Today	Total Deaths	Deaths Today
World	37.47 million	368,555	1.077 million	5,227
USA	7.95 million	54,235	219,370	723

For the 4th consecutive day, there is a new record for worldwide cases. 

This week's counts
Location	Total Cases	Percent Change	Total Deaths	Percent Change
World	2.26 million	+9.4%	37,273	+7.4%
USA	342,135	+11.5%	5,087	-0.4%

The weekly world case total is a new record.

This USA death count is the least since the week ending July 4th.

Some countries with new single-day highs today:
Country	Cases Today
France	26,986
Russia	12,846
Netherlands	6,499
Poland	5,300
Nepal	5,008
Tunisia	4,360
Romania	3,517
Myanmar	2,158
Slovakia	1,887
Hungary	1,387

The case rate in France is equivalent to 136,528 in the USA.

USA States with new highs for COVID-19 cases today:
State	Cases Today
Alaska	249
Colorado	1,023
Indiana	1,914
Minnesota	1,516
Nebraska	1,065
States with new highs for COVID-19 deaths today:
State	Deaths Today
North Dakota	15

October 5 | October 6 | October 7 | October 8 | October 9 | October 10 | October 11

OCTOBER 11

Today's counts
Location	Total Cases	Cases Today	Total Deaths	Deaths Today
World	37.76 million	288,360	1.081 million	3,952
USA	7.99 million	41,935	219,695	325

There are no reported numbers for Spain today, and Brazil's report may as well not have been reported (it's less than 10% of Saturday's numbers). So, typical Sunday caveats apply.

The USA case numbers were the highest for a Sunday since August 9th.

With the recent spike in cases worldwide without a corresponding spike in deaths (at least not yet), only 3 countries remain with a Case Fatality Rate (CFR) above 10%:

Countries with Case Fatality Rate above 10%
Country	Case Fatality Rate
Yemen	29.0%
Mexico	10.3%
Italy	10.2%

Yemen is obviously a matter of reporting, as both the official death and case numbers for the country are extremely low. In Italy, where the CFR so far in October is 0.7%, the overall CFR will drop under 10% in the next few days. Mexico, on the other hand, still has a brutally deficient rate of testing -- less than 5% per capita of the US testing rate. Mexico's CFR so far in October is 8.5%.

 

October 5 | October 6 | October 7 | October 8 | October 9 | October 10 | October 11