COVID-19 Compilation: Part 37 - December 8-12, 2020

On March 14th, I began posting COVID-19 updates to my facebook page, regarding the status of the COVID-19 pandemic. I have used data from worldometer as a primary source for daily and cumulative data, with frequent supplementation from various national and local sites. 

Notables this week:

  • New USA and World daily and weekly record highs for cases and deaths
  • Outside the USA, cases and deaths were both down for the 2nd consecutive week
  • The Pfizer / BionTech vaccine started rolling out in the UK

This blog post compiles the period of December 8th through 12th. see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more

DECEMBER 8

Today's counts
Location Total Cases Cases Today Total Deaths Deaths Today
World 69.36 million 604,142 1.563 million 12,047
USA 15.59 million 211,071 293,455 2,981

The Pfizer vaccine started rolling out in England today. A New York Times headline announced, "Pfizer’s Vaccine Offers Strong Protection After First Dose."

The article went on, "“This is what an A+ report card looks like for a vaccine,” said Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at Yale University."

A CNN report made sure to let us know this:

"William Shakespeare, 81, known to friends as Bill, was the second person to get a Covid-19 vaccine at the Coventry hospital on Tuesday."

How fast will this vaccine, and the others coming in soon, turn the tide on the virus? Months, probably.

The UK began a 4-week lockdown on November 5th. Cases in the UK peaked on November 12th, and the 7-day rolling average there hit an all-time high of 25,331 on November 16th. Right in line with the impact of other lockdowns across the world, the case rate began dropping off sharply after that, by 43% to a low of 14,400 per day on December 5th. Deaths started falling on November 28th, and the 7-day rolling average is down 12% since then.

DECEMBER 9

Today's counts
Location Total Cases Cases Today Total Deaths Deaths Today
World 70.02 million 658,121 1.575 million 12,347
USA 15.82 million 226,953 296,719 3,264

On September 4th, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) updated its projections. At the time, the USA was averaging around 43,000 cases per day, and about 900 COVID-19 deaths per day.

"We expect the daily death rate in the United States, because of seasonality and declining vigilance of the public, to reach nearly 3,000 a day in December. Cumulative deaths expected by January 1 are 410,000; this is 225,000 deaths from now until the end of the year."

Prior IHME projections had proved spectacularly wrong, including one in early April that predicted the grand total of COVID-19 deaths in the USA would be around 60,000, a number that was surpassed before April had ended. As I noted back in August, those earlier projections had influenced Federal policy.

Cases did continue to fall for a while after the September 4th IHME projection, to around 36,000 per day by September 11th. Deaths also fell for a while, to a low of a 7-day rolling average of 706 on October 17th. Some denialists referred to COVID-19 in the past tense.
  • On November 9th, the 7-day rolling average for deaths surpassed 1,000.
  • On December 4th, the 7-day rolling average for deaths surpassed 2,000.
  • Today, the first part of the September 4th IHME projection statement was realized: 3,264 COVID-19 deaths were reported in the USA, per worldometer. That's more people than were killed in the 9/11 attacks.
  • Tomorrow, the USA will likely surpass 300,000 total COVID-19 deaths.
The total for USA deaths by January 1st is likely to remain under the 410,000 that IHME projected. But, not by very much. The chart below shows the USA death rates since the start of the pandemic, on worldometer.

Daily COVID-19 deaths, and 7-day rolling average, USA
Daily COVID-19 deaths, and 7-day rolling average, USA

DECEMBER 10

Today's counts
Location Total Cases Cases Today Total Deaths Deaths Today
World 70.72 million 694,332 1.588 million 12,918
USA 16.05 million 227,339 299,731 3,098

On Labor Day, there were 25,906 COVID-19 cases in the United States.

Today, there were 34,033 COVID-19 cases in California.

DECEMBER 11

Today's counts
Location Total Cases Cases Today Total Deaths Deaths Today
World 71.45 million 703,570 1.600 million 12,413
USA 16.33 million 247,737 302,773 3,042

We still don't know the impact of the Thanksgiving holiday on US cases. But, as I've posted a few times recently, the numbers I'm seeing suggest that spread of the virus in the United States is slowing (California with 37,143 new cases today, notwithstanding). More on that in the next update, which will include the weekly summary.

DECEMBER 12

Today's counts
Location Total Cases Cases Today Total Deaths Deaths Today
World 72.14 million 655,693 1.612 million 10,844
USA 16.56 million 222,818 305,157 2,383
This week's counts
Location Total Cases Percent Change Total Deaths Percent Change
World 4.43 million +3.4% 77,264 +1.3%
USA 1.52 million +10.4% 17,422 +12.2%

Case and death numbers hit new records in the USA and worldwide, and I'm about to give my opinion why it isn't quite as awful as it looks.

But, as I've noted previously, we're not on an exponential curve. The rate of increase in US cases is up when the impact of Thanksgiving is factored in, but not nearly as badly as many feared. And even though deaths were up, they weren't up at exponential rates. Cases and deaths in worldwide excluding the USA were down for the 2nd consecutive week.

We don't yet know the full impact of Thanksgiving gatherings, nor of Christmas gatherings that have not yet occurred. 7 states set new case records today; Texas became the 31st state to set a new record for COVID-19 cases so far in December, with more than 20,000 today. In the USA, Thanksgiving and Christmas could cause yet more surges. But at least so far, it looks like we may be near the peak.

The attached graphs show US and World weekly cases and deaths.
World and USA COVID-19 cases and deaths, by week
World and USA COVID-19 cases and deaths, by week

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