COVID-19 Compilation: Part 40 - December 27, 2020 - January 2, 2021
On March 14th, I began posting COVID-19 updates to my facebook page, regarding the status of the COVID-19 pandemic. I have used data from worldometer as a primary source for daily and cumulative data, with frequent supplementation from various national and local sites.
Notables this week:
- cases and deaths were up this week in the USA and worldwide
- roll-out of the vaccines in the USA proceeded at a pace that was far slower than expected
- The USA recorded nearly 6.5 million new cases in December, and more than 80,000 deaths
This blog post compiles the period of December 27th, 2020 through January 2nd, 2021. see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
DECEMBER 27
| Today's counts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Total Cases | Cases Today | Total Deaths | Deaths Today |
| World | 81.20 million | 437,079 | 1.772 million | 7,244 |
| USA | 19.60 million | 145,277 | 341,216 | 1,265 |
More than one out of every one thousand Americans have now died from COVID-19, per most counts. South Carolina became the 20th state to have more than one in every one thousand population die from COVID-19.
In China, where the virus started, there have been no reported deaths since May 17th.
South Africa became the 18th country to record one million COVID-19 cases.
DECEMBER 28
| Today's counts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Total Cases | Cases Today | Total Deaths | Deaths Today |
| World | 81.70 million | 497,788 | 1.782 million | 9,318 |
| USA | 19.78 million | 187,517 | 343,181 | 1,972 |
Reported cases and deaths will continue to fluctuate over the next several days; today several states reported multiple days of data while others were still reporting Christmas weekend data.
News outlets across the country have been reporting that vaccine roll-out is going slower than expected.
Sample headlines in today's news:
"The COVID-19 vaccine rollout is a mess. Blame the U.S. health-care system." (The Philadelphia Inquirer)
"US officials promised 20 million vaccinated against coronavirus by the end of the year. It's going slower than that" (CNN)
"Dr. Peter Hotez on slow vaccine distribution: The Coronavirus Task Force 'may have underestimated some of the complicated logistics involved.'" (MSNBC)
Excerpt from the Inquirer article: "Pfizer says millions of doses sat in its storerooms because no one from President Donald Trump’s Operation Warp Speed task force told them where to ship them."
Slowness of the roll-out is not restricted to the USA. Another headline: "Slow vaccine rollout across Canada draws criticism, anger" (CTV)
Late updates pushed the USA and world death totals to new daily records today. This is likely due in substantial part to delayed reporting from the Christmas break.
There were a record 53,135 new cases reported in the UK today, shattering yesterday's record by nearly 12,000. Per a statement by Dr. Susan Hopkins, Senior Medical Advisor for Public Health England, "Whilst the number of cases reported today include some from over the festive period, these figures are largely a reflection of a real increase."
A risk assessment issued by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), meanwhile, said, "The United Kingdom (UK) has faced a rapid increase in COVID-19 case rates in the South-East, the East and the London area, which is associated with the emergence of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01. As of 26 December 2020, more than 3 000 cases of this new variant, confirmed by genome sequencing, have been reported from the UK."
The ECDC risk assessment went on:
"ECDC assesses that the probability of SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01 and 501.V2 being introduced and further spread in the EU/EEA is currently high. Although there is no information that infections with these strains are more severe, due to increased transmissibility the impact of COVID-19 disease in terms of hospitalisations and deaths is assessed as high, particularly for those in older age groups or with co-morbidities. The overall risk associated with the introduction and further spread of SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01 and 501.V2 is therefore assessed as high.
"The probability of increased circulation of any SARS-CoV-2 strains and this placing greater pressure on health systems in the coming weeks is considered to be high due to the festive season and, higher still, in countries where the new variants are established. The impact of this increased pressure on health systems is considered to be high even if current public health measures are maintained. Therefore, the overall risk of an increased impact on health systems in the coming weeks is assessed as high."
The first known USA instance of SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01 was confirmed today in sparsely populated Elbert County, Colorado (population density 12/square mile), in a man in his 20's with no known travel history. The obvious inference is that there are now many cases of the SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01 variant in the USA.
In the USA, Dr. Anthony Fauci had a simple reaction: "I'm not surprised."
There were new single day death records today both in the USA and worldwide. In addition, the USA passed 20 million total cases and 350,000 deaths, per worldometer numbers. 4 states set new records for cases.
Of course, we are still in reporting catch-up mode from the Christmas holiday, so as noted previously, numbers are not going to be very useful for assessing trends.
going out with a whiimper...
Before today, only California and Texas had as many as 17,000 new COVID-19 in a single day.
Today, 4 states cleared 17,000 new cases: In addition to California and Texas, Florida and New York also had more than 17,000.
With Florida setting a new record today, all of the continental US states have set new records for cases since November 10th.
Another full month concluded yesterday. In the United States there were nearly 6.5 million new cases and 80,055 COVID-19 deaths, both new records. The death count was more than double that of November, and the case rate was more than 5 times the 1.2 million cases recorded in September. The USA daily case rate was up 39% as compared to November, and that seems like a huge amount, but consider that the November case rate was more than double that of October.
Worldwide, the number of cases outside the USA was basically unchanged in December as compared to November. The USA accounted for more than half of the increase in worldwide deaths in December.
India saw sharp declines for the 3rd consecutive months; both cases and deaths there have declined by more than half since September. Or, to put it in numbers:
The attached chart shows the rate of change in cases and deaths worldwide and among the 5 countries with the most overall cases, over the past 6 months.
With the holidays now behind us and looking at new weeks with 7 full days of reporting, it's likely we'll see some record-breaking numbers for both cases and deaths. It remains to be seen how much of that will be due to holiday gatherings.
"Dr. Peter Hotez on slow vaccine distribution: The Coronavirus Task Force 'may have underestimated some of the complicated logistics involved.'" (MSNBC)
Excerpt from the Inquirer article: "Pfizer says millions of doses sat in its storerooms because no one from President Donald Trump’s Operation Warp Speed task force told them where to ship them."
Slowness of the roll-out is not restricted to the USA. Another headline: "Slow vaccine rollout across Canada draws criticism, anger" (CTV)
DECEMBER 29
| Today's counts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Total Cases | Cases Today | Total Deaths | Deaths Today |
| World | 82.33 million | 628,828 | 1.796 million | 14,110 |
| USA | 19.98 million | 199,597 | 346,898 | 3,717 |
Late updates pushed the USA and world death totals to new daily records today. This is likely due in substantial part to delayed reporting from the Christmas break.
There were a record 53,135 new cases reported in the UK today, shattering yesterday's record by nearly 12,000. Per a statement by Dr. Susan Hopkins, Senior Medical Advisor for Public Health England, "Whilst the number of cases reported today include some from over the festive period, these figures are largely a reflection of a real increase."
A risk assessment issued by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), meanwhile, said, "The United Kingdom (UK) has faced a rapid increase in COVID-19 case rates in the South-East, the East and the London area, which is associated with the emergence of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01. As of 26 December 2020, more than 3 000 cases of this new variant, confirmed by genome sequencing, have been reported from the UK."
The ECDC risk assessment went on:
"ECDC assesses that the probability of SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01 and 501.V2 being introduced and further spread in the EU/EEA is currently high. Although there is no information that infections with these strains are more severe, due to increased transmissibility the impact of COVID-19 disease in terms of hospitalisations and deaths is assessed as high, particularly for those in older age groups or with co-morbidities. The overall risk associated with the introduction and further spread of SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01 and 501.V2 is therefore assessed as high.
"The probability of increased circulation of any SARS-CoV-2 strains and this placing greater pressure on health systems in the coming weeks is considered to be high due to the festive season and, higher still, in countries where the new variants are established. The impact of this increased pressure on health systems is considered to be high even if current public health measures are maintained. Therefore, the overall risk of an increased impact on health systems in the coming weeks is assessed as high."
The first known USA instance of SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01 was confirmed today in sparsely populated Elbert County, Colorado (population density 12/square mile), in a man in his 20's with no known travel history. The obvious inference is that there are now many cases of the SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01 variant in the USA.
In the USA, Dr. Anthony Fauci had a simple reaction: "I'm not surprised."
DECEMBER 30
| Today's counts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Total Cases | Cases Today | Total Deaths | Deaths Today |
| World | 83.06 million | 728,664 | 1.811 million | 15,124 |
| USA | 20.22 million | 234,775 | 350,777 | 3,880 |
There were new single day death records today both in the USA and worldwide. In addition, the USA passed 20 million total cases and 350,000 deaths, per worldometer numbers. 4 states set new records for cases.
Of course, we are still in reporting catch-up mode from the Christmas holiday, so as noted previously, numbers are not going to be very useful for assessing trends.
DECEMBER 31
| Today's counts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Total Cases | Cases Today | Total Deaths | Deaths Today |
| World | 83.80 million | 748,013 | 1.825 million | 13,666 |
| USA | 20.45 million | 237,055 | 354,316 | 3,539 |
going out with a whiimper...
Before today, only California and Texas had as many as 17,000 new COVID-19 in a single day.
Today, 4 states cleared 17,000 new cases: In addition to California and Texas, Florida and New York also had more than 17,000.
With Florida setting a new record today, all of the continental US states have set new records for cases since November 10th.
JANUARY 1
| Today's counts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Total Cases | Cases Today | Total Deaths | Deaths Today |
| World | 84.43 million | 621,038 | 1.835 million | 9,771 |
| USA | 20.68 million | 224,392 | 356,613 | 2,258 |
Another full month concluded yesterday. In the United States there were nearly 6.5 million new cases and 80,055 COVID-19 deaths, both new records. The death count was more than double that of November, and the case rate was more than 5 times the 1.2 million cases recorded in September. The USA daily case rate was up 39% as compared to November, and that seems like a huge amount, but consider that the November case rate was more than double that of October.
Worldwide, the number of cases outside the USA was basically unchanged in December as compared to November. The USA accounted for more than half of the increase in worldwide deaths in December.
India saw sharp declines for the 3rd consecutive months; both cases and deaths there have declined by more than half since September. Or, to put it in numbers:
| India and USA Case and Death Counts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | September Cases | December Cases | September Deaths | December Deaths |
| India | 2.62 million | 0.82 million | 33,273 | 11,359 |
| USA | 1.22 million | 6.49 million | 24,238 | 80,055 |
The attached chart shows the rate of change in cases and deaths worldwide and among the 5 countries with the most overall cases, over the past 6 months.
 |
| case and death trends worldwide and among countries with the most cases, July-December 2020 |
JANUARY 2
| Today's counts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Total Cases | Cases Today | Total Deaths | Deaths Today |
| World | 84.98 million | 556,107 | 1.843 million | 8,267 |
| USA | 20.90 million | 236,387 | 358,691 | 2,078 |
| This week's counts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Total Cases | Percent Change | Total Deaths | Percent Change |
| World | 4.22 million | +2.7% | 77,648 | +6.4% |
| USA | 1.47 million | +8.7% | 18,740 | +17.2% |
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