COVID-19 Compilation: Part 43 - January 18-23, 2021

On March 14th, I began posting COVID-19 updates to my facebook page, regarding the status of the COVID-19 pandemic. I have used data from worldometer as a primary source for daily and cumulative data, with frequent supplementation from various national and local sites. 

Notables this week:

  • death counts set new records worldwide but fell in the USA
  • cases numbers declined sharply in both worldwide and in the USA
  • hospitalizations fell sharply in the USA
  • A new President took office in the USA, signaling a change in Federal policy for handling the virus

This blog post compiles the period of January 18th through 23rd, 2021. see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more

JANUARY 18

Today's counts
Location Total Cases Cases Today Total Deaths Deaths Today
World 96.02 million 483,993 2.050 million 9,406
USA 24.64 million 149,328408,718 1,502

The USA total for new cases today was the lowest so far in 2021, and only the 2nd time under 150,000 since November 9th. This may be due partly to the Federal holiday, though on New Year's Day there were more than 225,000 new cases.

The world number for cases was less than a half million for the first time in 2021.

In the United States, California passed 3 million total cases. California also paused administration of the Moderna vaccine from one batch of more than 330,000 doses, after a cluster of severe allergic reactions was observed at a San Diego clinic.

Meanwhile, a research study Leicester University for the UK Office of National Statistics of 47,780 people discharged from the hospital after COVID-19 illness during the first wave, 29.4% returned to the hospital within 140 days, and 12.3% died.

JANUARY 19

Today's counts
Location Total Cases Cases Today Total Deaths Deaths Today
World 96.71 million 592,686 2.065 million 14,770
USA 24.81 million 174,135411,520 2,802

Reset.

Over the past 8 days, the 7-day rolling average for cases in the United States has fallen by 20%. The 7-day rolling average for deaths has fallen by nearly 10% in the past 4 days.

By this time tomorrow, the USA will be instituting policy changes in the COVID-19 response under the new President.

JANUARY 20

Today's counts
Location Total Cases Cases Today Total Deaths Deaths Today
World 97.40 million 678,581 2.082 million 17,484
USA 25.00 million 190,216415,922 4,394

The USA 7-day rolling average for new cases fell to less than 200,000 for the first time in 2021 today.

Worldwide, COVID-19 deaths hit a new single day high, as the UK and Mexico set new records, with 1,820 and 1,584, respectively. The CDC has created a tracker for COVID-19 vaccinations. As of today, 14.27 million people have received at least one dose of an approved vaccine in the USA. 2.16 million people have received two doses. More than half of the nearly 36 million doses that have been distributed to date in the USA have not yet been administered.

At this point, I personally know far more people who have announced that they have received the vaccine, than have announced that they had the virus. That now includes two members of my immediate family who received first doses of the Moderna vaccine today.

JANUARY 21

Today's counts
Location Total Cases Cases Today Total Deaths Deaths Today
World 98.07 million 670,112 2.099 million 16,739
USA 25.20 million 194,622420,291 4,369

"Things are going to continue to get worse before they get better." President Joe Biden said this today, on his first full day in office.

The new President issued several Executive Orders today on a variety of items related to the handling of the virus. Some are matters of perception, others the role of the Federal Government in developing policy and tracking relevant data.

When I started doing these updates on March 14, 2020, I started doing so in part because it was extremely difficult to find solid data on the most basic of facts: How many people in the US and around the world were being reported with the virus, and how many were dying from it? I settled on worldometer because, at the time, they seemed the best of a very limited pool. Of course, there soon sprang many others... none of which were the CDC or some other Federal source.

The irony is, it's not at all clear that things are going to continue to get worse before they get better. It's been 5 days since any state set a new record for cases; only 3 states have set new records over the past 11 days. Hospitalizations are down nearly 10% over the past two weeks, per the COVID-19 Tracking Project. Deaths are a trailing indicator, and will remain high for some time to come; as a result the overall Case Fatality Rate for COVID-19 is starting to tick upward for the first time since May. Still, the recent trends suggest that deaths may also have neared -- or perhaps reached -- the peak.

For more information on the hospitalization numbers, there is a good visualization at the COVID Tracking Project. The following table is an image from the visualization.

USA OVID-19 hospitalizations over time, according to the CDC
USA OVID-19 hospitalizations over time, according to the CDC

JANUARY 22

Today's counts
Location Total Cases Cases Today Total Deaths Deaths Today
World 98.72 million 657,357 2.115 million 16,055
USA 25.39 million 195,401424,208 3,917

1,803 deaths were reported in Mexico today, a new record.

In the United States, the CDC reported that nearly 1.6 million vaccine doses were administered today, a new single day record. This brings the total number of vaccine doses to more than 19 million to date, including 2.75 million people who have received two doses.

The 7-day rolling average or cases in the USA fell to the lowest level since December 3rd.

JANUARY 23

Today's counts
Location Total Cases Cases Today Total Deaths Deaths Today
World 99.33 million 607,486 2.129 million 14,173
USA 25.57 million 174,045 427,642 3,428
This week's counts
Location Cases This Week Percent Change Deaths This Week Percent Change
World 4.25 million -12.3% 98,302 +2.6%
USA 1.26 million -21.2% 22,272 -7.0%

This week's decline in cases in the USA is the largest week-over-week decline since the beginning of the pandemic. Cases are down 27.8% over the past two weeks.

We may finally be getting a more accurate view of the case fatality rate for COVID-19; as new cases decline and older cases resolve, the case fatality rate (CFR) went up in both the USA and the world. In the USA, it is the first weekly rise in the CFR since the week ending May 16th; worldwide for the first time since the week ending May 2nd. Per worldometer data, the USA CFR is 1.67%; worldwide it is 2.14%.

The attached chart shows the weekly and overall CFR for COVID-19 in the USA.
Case Fatality Rate (CFR) in the USA overall, and by week
Case Fatality Rate (CFR) in the USA overall, and by week

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