COVID-19 Compilation: Part 47 - February 14-20, 2021

On March 14th, 2020, I began posting COVID-19 updates to my facebook page, regarding the status of the COVID-19 pandemic. I have used data from worldometer as a primary source for daily and cumulative data, with frequent supplementation from various national and local sites. 

Notables this week:

• new cases and deaths continued to fall sharply in both the USA and worldwide
• The weather catastrophe in Texas also held down reporting there

This blog post compiles the period of February 14th through 20th, 2021. see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more

February 14 | February 15 | February 17 | February 18 | February 19 | February 20

FEBRUARY 14

Today's counts
Location	Total Cases	Cases Today	Total Deaths	Deaths Today
World	109.42 million	304,469	2.412 million	7,240
USA	28.26 million	66,466	497,249	1,114

The number of cases in the USA and worldwide were both the lowest today since October, 2020.

In the USA, more than 2 million vaccine doses were administered today. More than 52 million doses have been administered, and more than 14 million people have received two doses.

February 14 | February 15 | February 17 | February 18 | February 19 | February 20

FEBRUARY 15

Today's counts
Location	Total Cases	Cases Today	Total Deaths	Deaths Today
World	106.68 million	265,340	2.419 million	6,695
USA	28.32 million	53,246	498,188	930

Cases today fell in the USA to the lowest level in more than 4 months. Deaths were less than 1,000 for the first time in 2021.

I first called the inflection point in late November. On the 20th, the USA surpassed 200,000 cases on one day for the first time that day. I wrote, "for the first time in nearly 2 months, cases are not expanding in the USA at an exponential rate."

The USA would eventually average more than 250,000 cases per day, and top out at more than 300,000 on January 8th. People are still getting the virus, and still dying from it; the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is actually going up. The peak, however, has passed.

The questions now don't seem to be whether the UK strain, or some other strain, will create the next surge. Rather, they are to when a real sense of normalcy will start to return.

February 14 | February 15 | February 17 | February 18 | February 19 | February 20

FEBRUARY 17

500,000

Today's counts
Location	Total Cases	Cases Today	Total Deaths	Deaths Today
World	110.43 million	398,327	2.440 million	11,388
USA	28.45 million	72,421	502,548	2,531

Back on April 3, 2020, I wrote, "We should probably be prepared, in some fashion, for 500,000 deaths. Barring a course correction here, that's where we're headed."

That was based on several factors, including a piece published that day in the Italian newspaper ""La Repubblica" suggesting that infection rates were dramatically higher than official report, and projecting from there a Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and how many deaths would occur in the USA if we collectively required herd immunity before the deaths stopped.

I came up with a range of about 500,000 to 750,000, and opted for the low end, as I figured that would be sufficiently shocking for a facebook post. The IHME estimate of 60,000 total USA deaths came out a couple of days later.

There was no course correction in the USA. And... at least per worldometer data, here we are. The CDC has the USA at 486,466 deaths. 

The good news, at this point, is that the deaths trend is clearly downward. The "holiday surge" that has been published as fact across the media, largely did not in most of the USA; for example, here in Michigan there was no surge. Likewise, it's probably not accurate to credit the vaccine rollouts for the dramatic drop in cases; though the vaccines have almost certainly helped, the USA was trending sharply downward even before the vaccines got to a substantial portion of the population.

What does that mean? It's too early to declare that the combination of COVID-19 cases + vaccines gives us collective herd immunity across the land. Without making any further predictions, I'll leave it there.

February 14 | February 15 | February 17 | February 18 | February 19 | February 20

FEBRUARY 18

Today's counts
Location	Total Cases	Cases Today	Total Deaths	Deaths Today
World	110.83 million	403,934	2.452 million	11,630
USA	28.53 million	70,214	505,318	2,775

Texas Health and Human Services put out a statement yesterday, "Winter weather is affecting the reporting of new COVID-19 cases and fatalities across many jurisdictions. New case counts will be artificially low until reporting resumes." An additional note read, "Labs/Testing data were not able to be updated today due to power outages. Updates will resume when conditions permit."

February 14 | February 15 | February 17 | February 18 | February 19 | February 20

FEBRUARY 19

Today's counts
Location	Total Cases	Cases Today	Total Deaths	Deaths Today
World	111.27 million	409,375	2.463 million	11,271
USA	28.64 million	84,491	507,968	2,652

February 14 | February 15 | February 17 | February 18 | February 19 | February 20

FEBRUARY 20

Today's counts
Location	Total Cases	Cases Today	Total Deaths	Deaths Today
World	111.65 million	382,099	2.472 million	8,709
USA	28.71 million	71,710	509,972	1,923

This week's counts
Location	Cases This Week	Percent Change	Deaths This Week	Percent Change
World	2.52 million	-9.9%	66,867	-17.1%
USA	0.49 million	-28.4%	13,731	-24.6%

Cases continued to plummet in the USA and in most of the world this week (Brazil being a noticeable exception).

In the United States, cases feel by more than 28%, by far the steepest percentage drop since the start of the pandemic. USA COVID-19 deaths fell by almost 25% and by nearly 4500 in the raw count; both declines also mark new records. The new case rate in the USA has fallen by more than 70% over the past 6 weeks, and the death rate has fallen below the levels of last spring's highs.

The attached graph shows the US and world case and death rate for COVID-19.

USA and World COVID-19 Cases and Deaths, by week

February 14 | February 15 | February 17 | February 18 | February 19 | February 20