COVID-19 Compilation: Part 17 - July 5-11, 2020
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| US Deaths started trending upwards this week |
This blog post compiles the period of July 5th through July 11th. I have corrected some typos, augmented with links to original sources, and used some basic html to improve formatting; otherwise these are presented as-is from the original posts.
JULY 5:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
There were 175,499 new COVID-19 cases worldwide today, including 44,530 in the USA. Cumulative totals are now 11.55 million worldwide, including 2.98 million in the USA.
There were 3,572 COVID-19 deaths worldwide today, including 251 in the USA. Cumulative totals are now 536.445 worldwide, including 132,569 in the USA.
The US number for new cases is the lowest since June 28th; however, with it being Sunday combined with 3 states not reporting new data (Connecticut, Rhode Island and Kentucky) as well as Los Angeles County not reporting new data, this isn't a big surprise.
West Virginia was the only state to have a record today for new cases, per worldometers tabulations, with 130.
Last night, the President of the United States declared the following: "Now we have tested almost 40 million people. By so doing, we show cases, 99% of which are totally harmless, results that no other country can show because no other country has testing that we have, not in terms of the numbers or in terms of the quality.”
For the record, the USA has performed 37.6 million tests, putting this country 2nd in the world in total tests and 25th per capita. Some of those tests represent people who have been tested more than once. 7.9% of the tests have had positive results, that is, they led to cases.
Of the cases, 4.4% have resulted in death. Hundreds of thousands more have led to hospitalizations, which is typically not something I'd describe as "totally harmless."
The more salient point here seems to me that we have now moved beyond the stage of denying empathy, to the stage of denying there's an ongoing problem at all. Will that continue to be true as cases and deaths continue to tilt towards states governed by members of the President's political party?
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 11,543,516 Cases and 536,344 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
JULY 6:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
There were 171,508 new COVID-19 cases worldwide today, including 50,586 in the USA. Cumulative totals are now 11.73 million worldwide, including 2.04 million in the USA.
There were 3,583 COVID-19 deaths worldwide today, including 379 in the USA. Cumulative totals are now 540,137 worldwide, including 132,979 in the USA.
In the USA, Los Angeles County came back on line, and added a total of 7,232 new cases from Thursday, Friday and Saturday. As a result of adding the numbers back in, Friday's US total case count is revised on worldometer to a new record of 58,911 new cases.
States with new records for cases today:
| State | Number of Cases |
| Texas | 9,054 |
| Washington | 1,177 |
| Kentucky | 776 |
More ominously, Texas (63) tied its record for most COVID-19 deaths today.
A simple comparison of New Jersey and Arizona rates can help illustrate how the virus impact is shifting.
| State | Total Cases / Million | Current Hospitalizations / Million | Total Deaths / Million |
| New Jersey | 18,341 | 308 | 1,608 |
| Arizona | 2,765 | 138 | 127 |
As of July 6
| State | Cases / Million Since June 1 | Current Hospitalizations / Million | Deaths / Million Since June 1 |
| New Jersey | 1,630 | 97 | 115 |
| Arizona | 11,172 | 442 | 123 |
Before the end of the month, Arizona will likely lead the United States in cases per capita... unless Arizona runs out of testing equipment first.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 11,710,955 Cases and 539,722 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
JULY 7:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Deaths.
This is the primary reason, of course, why COVID-19 is so scary. More than half a million have died around the world, more than 130,000 in the USA.
But per the statistics, the "death rate" is going down. What this typically means is the "case fatality rate," as measured by dividing the number of deaths by the number of cases. Indeed, the "case fatality rate," both worldwide and in the USA, has fallen each of the past 11 weeks.
The logic goes that treatments have gotten better, or the virus has mutated and is less lethal, or that we're keeping the most vulnerable populations safer. This last, at least, is undeniably true.
Back on April 15th, I published case, hospital and death rates per 100,000 people in New York City, by age group.
Today, I got a refresh of that data and... the hospitalization rates are virtually unchanged. The CFR has actually gone up, fairly significantly, across age groups. This is no doubt due in large part to cases that had already been counted by April 15th, in which death did not occur until later. What has changed in New York since April 15th, mostly, is the number of cases has gone down.
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| New York City data |
It has felt inevitable for some time that the raw count of deaths in the US would start to trend upwards, that we could not continue to have cases increase as much as they have without deaths starting to follow. Granted, today marks the first full day of data after a long weekend, as several states don't report Monday data until Tuesday.
Nonetheless, there were 994 deaths in the United States today; that's the most since June 4th. States with new death records:
| State | Number of Deaths |
| Arizona | 117 |
| Texas | 85 |
| Mississippi | 44 |
California (118) had its highest total since April.
Worldwide, there were 207,752 new cases today, and there have been 11.94 million to date. The USA added 55,442 new cases, and is at 3.10 million overall. 20 US States have set new daily records for cases during the first week of July.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
JULY 8:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Deaths and the Second Wave of Cancellations.
On June 27th, I wrote: "The states with exponentially rising case numbers are also starting to see deaths trend upward. Within the very near future, this is likely to be the national trend as well."
11 days later, here we are.
In California, there were 150 COVID-19 deaths today. The prior record was 121.
Just two days ago, Texas tied its single day deaths record with 63. Texas's record for COVID-19 deaths in a full week (Sunday through Saturday) is 242, set just last week; 5 weeks ago Texas was averaging 20 deaths per day.
Today, Texas had 121 COVID-19 deaths, its third consecutive record day. There have been 294 COVID-19 deaths recorded in Texas so far this week.
The two most populous states in the United States are experiencing a huge death surge.
In the sports world, apparently very important to a "return to normalcy" we're starting to see substantial cancellations. Today the Ivy League announced cancellation of all fall sports, including football. Recall that the Ivy League was the first major conference to cancel its basketball tournaments back in March. Elsewhere: The University of North Carolina paused its voluntary workouts after today after 37 out of 429 athletes, coaches and staff in its athletic department tested positive for COVID-19. The Ohio State University likewise paused its voluntary workouts later in the day due to positive COVID-19 test results (tOSU did not release numbers). Look for more cancellations soon.
The President of the United States, meanwhile, tweeted the following: "In Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and many other countries, SCHOOLS ARE OPEN WITH NO PROBLEMS. The Dems think it would be bad for them politically if U.S. schools open before the November Election, but is important for the children & families. May cut off funding if not open!"
Those 4 countries combined for 727 cases and 24 deaths today; all of the deaths and all but 15 of the cases being in Germany and Sweden. Those countries have a combined population of about 105 million people.
16 US States had more cases than those 4 countries combined, and 11 had more deaths.
California and Texas both had more cases and more deaths than the entire European Union today.
Worldwide, there were 213,280 new cases today, including 61,848 in the USA. Both numbers are new single day records.
There were 5,518 deaths worldwide today, including 890 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 12.16 million cases and 551,192 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 3.16 million cases and 134,862 deaths.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 12,078,285 Cases and 549,505 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
JULY 9:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were a record 222,825 new cases today, including 61,067 in the USA.
There were 5,404 deaths worldwide today, including 960 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 12.38 million cases and 556,601 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 3.22 million cases and 135,822 deaths.
India (25,790) and South Africa (13,674) both set new single day records for cases today.
In the USA, Florida had 119 COVID-19 deaths today, easily topping the previous record of 83. Seven states also had new records for cases, from Texas (11,394) to Hawaii (36).
In several prior posts, I have speculated as to the declining observed "Case Fatality Rates" (deaths as a percentage of cases). So I decided to do a bit of an analysis using the overall death rate by age group, using Michigan data that I had handy.
Through July 6th, Michigan has had a reasonably typical distribution of cases and deaths: 33% of all cases were for people age 39 and under, 19% of all cases were in people age 70 and over, most deaths were in older age groups, and 8.2% of all cases have resulted in death.
From July 7th through July 9th, 62% of all cases are in people age 39 and under, a dramatic increase, while just 6% of cases were in people age 70 and over. Applying the death rate to date of each age group, that leads to an "expected" overall death rate in the new cases of 3.2%, or well less than half of the overall CFR for Michigan. That is, with no changes at all to success rates per group, the basic change in the demographics will lead to a dramatically lowered CFR.
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| Michigan data by age group |
JULY 10:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
There were a 236,918 new cases today, including 71,787 in the USA. Both numbers are new records.
There were 5,416 deaths worldwide today, including 849 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 12.62 million cases and 562,039 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 3.29 million cases and 136,671 deaths.
The USA case count broke the prior record by nearly 10,000 and made Dr. Fauci's warning of the potential for 100,000 cases per day seem ever nearer. Eight states set new records for cases today, and three broke or tied records for deaths.
30 states had at least 500 new cases today, including 14 with more than 1,000. Georgia broke its previous case record by more than 1,000. Even Alaska and Montana set new records.
If there is a bright spot in the USA, it's in New England, where the 6 states combined for 396 cases and 33 deaths (213 cases and 28 deaths in Massachusetts).
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 12,611,543 Cases and 561,927 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
JULY 11:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary, as we come to the end of another week, so just numbers today:
- There were a 214,741 new cases today, including 61,719 in the USA.
- There were 4,996 deaths worldwide today, including 732 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 12.83 million cases and 567,035 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 3.36 million cases and 137,403 deaths.
For the week, there were 1.45 million cases and 34,011 deaths. The case count is 10% above last week's record, and marks the 10th consecutive week of rising cases worldwide. During that period, we've gone from an average of about 80,000 cases worldwide daily, to about 200,000 cases per day.
The worldwide death count was up by about 7% over last week, and was the highest in 10 weeks.
In the USA, there were 410,519 new cases this week and 5,064 deaths. The case count is 17% above last week's record, and ends the 6th consecutive week of rising cases. During that period, we've gone from about 22,000 cases per day, to an average of nearly 59,000 this week, including Friday's record of more than 71,000. Fully half of the states in the USA have set single day records for cases during the first 11 days of July; several states have done so multiple times.
The USA death count was up 39% over last week, to the highest level in 4 weeks. This marks the first time in 12 weeks that the USA has seen a week-over-week rise in deaths.
Several states completely shattered prior weekly death records:
- In Florida, there were 494 COVID-19 deaths, a jump of 59% from last week, and 40% above the prior weekly record.
- Texas had 580 COVID-19 deaths this week, which was 140% above its prior record, set just last week.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 12,833,310 Cases and 567,034 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
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