COVID-19 Compilation: Part 18 - July 12-18, 2020
On March 14th, I began posting daily updates to my facebook page, regarding the status of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a backbone for this, I have used data from worldometers. I had no particular plan at the time, but as things have evolved I have kept going at one post per day, eventually settling on a more or less standard format and one topic per day.
This blog post compiles the period of July 12th through July 18th. I have corrected some typos, augmented with links to original sources, and used some basic html to improve formatting; otherwise these are presented as-is from the original posts.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
July 12 | July 13 | July 14 | July 15 | July 16 | July 17 | July 18
JULY 12:
There were a 194,677 new cases today, including 58,349 in the USA.
There were 3,956 deaths worldwide today, including 380 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 13.03 million cases and 571,080 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 3.41 million cases and 137,782 deaths.
Some numbers are down, as usual, on Sunday. Though not so much in the USA today, where Florida set a single day record for *any* state with 15,300, topping the 11,661 cases in New York on April 15th.
This time, at least, Florida can say with some accuracy that testing was up: Florida reported 99,003 test results today, the most per capita in the United States.
July 12 | July 13 | July 14 | July 15 | July 16 | July 17 | July 18
JULY 13:
There were a 195,878 new cases worldwide today, including 65,468 in the USA.
There were 3,731 deaths worldwide today, including 465 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 13.22 million cases and 574,981 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 3.48 million cases and 138,247 deaths.
Kansas, Tennessee and Washington all set new daily case records. The reappearance of Washington getting new records is noteworthy as Washington was where some of the first US community spread cases were diagnosed, and Washington has had a measure of success battling the virus.
Several states have started to roll back re-openings: Today, California banned indoor drinking and dining, and Michigan rolled out a new order requiring mask use in all indoor public spaces.
It's too late, however, to prevent the spike that will ensue from July 4th gatherings. The US is pointing towards 5 million total cases by the end of the month.
July 12 | July 13 | July 14 | July 15 | July 16 | July 17 | July 18
JULY 14:
Back to Florida again.
Why Florida again?
It's not the big push in Florida to re-open schools despite the explosive case load; Governor DeSantis has compared being in school to shopping at Home Depot. But as idiotic as that comment was, the truth is that Florida has had a total of 2 deaths of people under age 15, and just 12 more of people ages 15-24.
Nor is it the opening of Disney World coincident with having record cases, though that does seem like a bad idea.
Nor, even, is it the idea of trying to play the remainder of the NBA season in Florida, strictly for the TV broadcasts, starting later this month.
Rather, it's a rather startling (to me, anyway) change in the demographics of new Florida cases. As recently as June 24th, the media age for new Florida cases was 33. Today, it's 41. That's bad.
The attached table and graph shows the Florida trend in cases so far in July. 40% of the cases are still in people under age 35, but that's down from about 50% when the month started. That is, the young ones really aren't keeping the old ones safe. At least, not safe enough. Hospitalizations are already tripled among the oldest age groups this month, with an increase in deaths sure to follow. Florida had a new single day record for deaths today, with 132. Four other states, including Texas, also set new records for deaths today.
There were 216,806 new cases worldwide today, including 65,594 in the USA.
There were 5,346 deaths worldwide today, including 935 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 13.45 million cases and 580,282 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 3.55 million cases and 139,143 deaths.
July 12 | July 13 | July 14 | July 15 | July 16 | July 17 | July 18
JULY 15:
There were 234,245 new cases worldwide today, including 71,670 in the USA.
There were 5,754 deaths worldwide today, including 997 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 13.68 million cases and 586,193 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 3.62 million cases and 140,140 deaths.
India became the 3rd country in the world to have as many as 30,000 cases in a single day, with 32,681.
In the US, Michigan had its highest case total in more than 2 months. Alabama and Texas set new records for deaths, and California, Idaho, Montana, Oklahoma and Texas all set new daily records for cases.
Speaking of Oklahoma, its Governor is Republican Kevin Stitt. Way back on March 14th, as other states were shutting down, Stitt made a point of tweeting a photograph of himself and his kids at a crowded restaurant and exclaiming in the tweet, "it's packed tonight!"
Stitt was among the most aggressive in re-opening state businesses, starting on April 24th, the same day as Georgia. In June, Stitt attended Donald Trump's rally in Tulsa, without a mask. As recently as July 9th, Stitt emphasized that he would not implement a mask order in Oklahoma.
Cases in Tulsa County are up more than 200% since Trump's rally there on June 20th. Today, Governor Stitt announced that he has tested positive for COVID-19.
July 12 | July 13 | July 14 | July 15 | July 16 | July 17 | July 18
JULY 16:
There were 248,445 new cases worldwide today, including 73,388 in the USA. Both numbers are new records.
There were 5,737 deaths worldwide today, including 963 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 13.94 million cases and 591,958 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 3.69 million cases and 141,118 deaths.
Florida set another single day record for deaths with 156, and South Carolina also had a single day death record, with 72.
One page that I've been following with interest is the CDC Excess Deaths associated with COVID-19 page; this is not among the CDC pages impacted by the various political decisions of the past couple days.
Per the opening statement of the page: "Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods." The expected number of deaths is based on the past 5 years. and is shown as an upper bound threshold and a lower bound threshold. Per the site, "Data are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death."
The attached chart shows the CDC measures of excess deaths by week for each threshold, and also the Worldometers tally of US deaths by week. Per the CDC, excess deaths are now tallied at between 124,892 and 168,674; the higher number is about 17,000 more than what's shown in the chart. Keep in mind that the data is up to 8 weeks behind, so we should expect to see the CDC numbers for for past 2 months to go up. There are some politicized claims now that US death totals have been exaggerated. As the chart shows, that is not true: For all weeks in which the CDC data is up to date, the Worldometers death numbers (which are higher than those reported by Johns Hopkins) are substantially below even the CDC Excess Lower Estimate.
July 12 | July 13 | July 14 | July 15 | July 16 | July 17 | July 18
JULY 17:
There were 240,402 new cases worldwide today, including 74.987 in the USA. The USA number is a new record.
There were 5,555 deaths worldwide today, including 946 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 14.18 million cases and 598.527 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 3.77 million cases and 142,064 deaths.
Chile added 959 deaths that had previously gone unreported, thus adding to the cumulative worldwide total.
In the US, Texas set yet another single day death record with 162, while Missouri and Ohio both had single day case records.
Continuing the discussion of the CDC Excess Deaths associated with COVID-19 page; yesterday I looked at the national data.
Today I'll focus on the data from two states: Connecticut, which had a large impact early during the pandemic in the US, and Texas, which is seeing a large impact now. These two states are presently 9th and 10th, respectively, in total deaths in the US.
Again, per the opening statement of the page: "Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods."
Per the site, "Data are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death."
Connecticut peaked in recorded COVID-19 deaths the week of April 25th with 776, and has come down every week since then. Last week, the Nutmeg State recorded just 13 deaths (it has jumped to 48 so far this week).
Per the CDC Excess Death page, Connecticut has not had excess deaths since late May. That may change as data continues to be processed, but the short story is that overall deaths within Connecticut have been within normal ranges the past two months. The yellow line in the graph, representing the overall COVID-19 deaths per the Worldometers site, now nearly matches the CDC Excess Higher Estimate Total.
Texas, on the other hand, had an early peak of 237 deaths the week of May 9th, decreased as low as 142 the week of June 13th, and has risen each of the past 4 weeks, reaching 580 last week. Texas has already recorded 704 deaths this week, with one more day to go.
Here, the CDC page tells a very different story: The excess deaths continue well in to June, and will undoubtedly be adjusted upwards as data is processed. More importantly, both the upper and even lower estimates from CDC are often significantly higher than the numbers reported by the state of Texas. For example, the lower estimate for the week of June 13th is 331, and the higher estimate is 548; the state of Texas reported 142. This suggests that the official death count for Texas may represent a substantial undercount.
July 12 | July 13 | July 14 | July 15 | July 16 | July 17 | July 18
JULY 18:
There were 224,065 new cases worldwide today, including 63,259 in the USA.
There were 5,008 deaths worldwide today, including 813 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 14.41 million cases and 604,240 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 3.83 million cases and 142,877 deaths.
For the week, there were 1.57 million cases worldwide, 8% above last week's record. In the USA, there were 474,097 cases, which is 15% above last week's record. The rate of new cases has more than tripled in the USA over the past 7 weeks.
There were 36,153 deaths worldwide this week. That's a 6% rise over last week; the number of deaths is the largest since the week of May 2nd. In the USA, there were 5,506 deaths, an increase of 9% over last week.
In the USA, Arizona set another record for deaths, with 147.
Let's take a quick look at the deaths, state by state. The attached table shows the total deaths for each state over the last 2 weeks, as compared to the 2 weeks prior. I've sorted the table from most to least deaths these past two weeks. The last time I posted a similar chart, 3 weeks ago, I noted that 13 states had rising death rates. Now, it's 29.
July 12 | July 13 | July 14 | July 15 | July 16 | July 17 | July 18
This blog post compiles the period of July 12th through July 18th. I have corrected some typos, augmented with links to original sources, and used some basic html to improve formatting; otherwise these are presented as-is from the original posts.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
JULY 12:
There were a 194,677 new cases today, including 58,349 in the USA.
There were 3,956 deaths worldwide today, including 380 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 13.03 million cases and 571,080 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 3.41 million cases and 137,782 deaths.
Some numbers are down, as usual, on Sunday. Though not so much in the USA today, where Florida set a single day record for *any* state with 15,300, topping the 11,661 cases in New York on April 15th.
This time, at least, Florida can say with some accuracy that testing was up: Florida reported 99,003 test results today, the most per capita in the United States.
JULY 13:
There were a 195,878 new cases worldwide today, including 65,468 in the USA.
There were 3,731 deaths worldwide today, including 465 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 13.22 million cases and 574,981 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 3.48 million cases and 138,247 deaths.
Kansas, Tennessee and Washington all set new daily case records. The reappearance of Washington getting new records is noteworthy as Washington was where some of the first US community spread cases were diagnosed, and Washington has had a measure of success battling the virus.
Several states have started to roll back re-openings: Today, California banned indoor drinking and dining, and Michigan rolled out a new order requiring mask use in all indoor public spaces.
It's too late, however, to prevent the spike that will ensue from July 4th gatherings. The US is pointing towards 5 million total cases by the end of the month.
JULY 14:
Back to Florida again.
Why Florida again?
It's not the big push in Florida to re-open schools despite the explosive case load; Governor DeSantis has compared being in school to shopping at Home Depot. But as idiotic as that comment was, the truth is that Florida has had a total of 2 deaths of people under age 15, and just 12 more of people ages 15-24.
Nor is it the opening of Disney World coincident with having record cases, though that does seem like a bad idea.
Nor, even, is it the idea of trying to play the remainder of the NBA season in Florida, strictly for the TV broadcasts, starting later this month.
Rather, it's a rather startling (to me, anyway) change in the demographics of new Florida cases. As recently as June 24th, the media age for new Florida cases was 33. Today, it's 41. That's bad.
The attached table and graph shows the Florida trend in cases so far in July. 40% of the cases are still in people under age 35, but that's down from about 50% when the month started. That is, the young ones really aren't keeping the old ones safe. At least, not safe enough. Hospitalizations are already tripled among the oldest age groups this month, with an increase in deaths sure to follow. Florida had a new single day record for deaths today, with 132. Four other states, including Texas, also set new records for deaths today.
 |
| Florida COVID-19 cases, July 1-14, 2020 |
There were 5,346 deaths worldwide today, including 935 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 13.45 million cases and 580,282 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 3.55 million cases and 139,143 deaths.
JULY 15:
There were 234,245 new cases worldwide today, including 71,670 in the USA.
There were 5,754 deaths worldwide today, including 997 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 13.68 million cases and 586,193 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 3.62 million cases and 140,140 deaths.
India became the 3rd country in the world to have as many as 30,000 cases in a single day, with 32,681.
In the US, Michigan had its highest case total in more than 2 months. Alabama and Texas set new records for deaths, and California, Idaho, Montana, Oklahoma and Texas all set new daily records for cases.
Speaking of Oklahoma, its Governor is Republican Kevin Stitt. Way back on March 14th, as other states were shutting down, Stitt made a point of tweeting a photograph of himself and his kids at a crowded restaurant and exclaiming in the tweet, "it's packed tonight!"
Stitt was among the most aggressive in re-opening state businesses, starting on April 24th, the same day as Georgia. In June, Stitt attended Donald Trump's rally in Tulsa, without a mask. As recently as July 9th, Stitt emphasized that he would not implement a mask order in Oklahoma.
Cases in Tulsa County are up more than 200% since Trump's rally there on June 20th. Today, Governor Stitt announced that he has tested positive for COVID-19.
JULY 16:
There were 248,445 new cases worldwide today, including 73,388 in the USA. Both numbers are new records.
There were 5,737 deaths worldwide today, including 963 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 13.94 million cases and 591,958 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 3.69 million cases and 141,118 deaths.
Florida set another single day record for deaths with 156, and South Carolina also had a single day death record, with 72.
One page that I've been following with interest is the CDC Excess Deaths associated with COVID-19 page; this is not among the CDC pages impacted by the various political decisions of the past couple days.
Per the opening statement of the page: "Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods." The expected number of deaths is based on the past 5 years. and is shown as an upper bound threshold and a lower bound threshold. Per the site, "Data are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death."
The attached chart shows the CDC measures of excess deaths by week for each threshold, and also the Worldometers tally of US deaths by week. Per the CDC, excess deaths are now tallied at between 124,892 and 168,674; the higher number is about 17,000 more than what's shown in the chart. Keep in mind that the data is up to 8 weeks behind, so we should expect to see the CDC numbers for for past 2 months to go up. There are some politicized claims now that US death totals have been exaggerated. As the chart shows, that is not true: For all weeks in which the CDC data is up to date, the Worldometers death numbers (which are higher than those reported by Johns Hopkins) are substantially below even the CDC Excess Lower Estimate.
Tomorrow I'll look at a couple of individual states: one that was hit hard early, and one that has had a more recent impact.
JULY 17:
There were 240,402 new cases worldwide today, including 74.987 in the USA. The USA number is a new record.
There were 5,555 deaths worldwide today, including 946 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 14.18 million cases and 598.527 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 3.77 million cases and 142,064 deaths.
Chile added 959 deaths that had previously gone unreported, thus adding to the cumulative worldwide total.
In the US, Texas set yet another single day death record with 162, while Missouri and Ohio both had single day case records.
Continuing the discussion of the CDC Excess Deaths associated with COVID-19 page; yesterday I looked at the national data.
Today I'll focus on the data from two states: Connecticut, which had a large impact early during the pandemic in the US, and Texas, which is seeing a large impact now. These two states are presently 9th and 10th, respectively, in total deaths in the US.
Again, per the opening statement of the page: "Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods."
Per the site, "Data are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death."
Connecticut peaked in recorded COVID-19 deaths the week of April 25th with 776, and has come down every week since then. Last week, the Nutmeg State recorded just 13 deaths (it has jumped to 48 so far this week).
Per the CDC Excess Death page, Connecticut has not had excess deaths since late May. That may change as data continues to be processed, but the short story is that overall deaths within Connecticut have been within normal ranges the past two months. The yellow line in the graph, representing the overall COVID-19 deaths per the Worldometers site, now nearly matches the CDC Excess Higher Estimate Total.
Texas, on the other hand, had an early peak of 237 deaths the week of May 9th, decreased as low as 142 the week of June 13th, and has risen each of the past 4 weeks, reaching 580 last week. Texas has already recorded 704 deaths this week, with one more day to go.
Here, the CDC page tells a very different story: The excess deaths continue well in to June, and will undoubtedly be adjusted upwards as data is processed. More importantly, both the upper and even lower estimates from CDC are often significantly higher than the numbers reported by the state of Texas. For example, the lower estimate for the week of June 13th is 331, and the higher estimate is 548; the state of Texas reported 142. This suggests that the official death count for Texas may represent a substantial undercount.
 |
| Connecticut and Texas excess deaths counts per CDC, and deaths per worldometers. |
JULY 18:
There were 224,065 new cases worldwide today, including 63,259 in the USA.
There were 5,008 deaths worldwide today, including 813 in the USA.
Cumulatively, there have now been 14.41 million cases and 604,240 deaths worldwide. In the USA, there have been 3.83 million cases and 142,877 deaths.
For the week, there were 1.57 million cases worldwide, 8% above last week's record. In the USA, there were 474,097 cases, which is 15% above last week's record. The rate of new cases has more than tripled in the USA over the past 7 weeks.
There were 36,153 deaths worldwide this week. That's a 6% rise over last week; the number of deaths is the largest since the week of May 2nd. In the USA, there were 5,506 deaths, an increase of 9% over last week.
In the USA, Arizona set another record for deaths, with 147.
Let's take a quick look at the deaths, state by state. The attached table shows the total deaths for each state over the last 2 weeks, as compared to the 2 weeks prior. I've sorted the table from most to least deaths these past two weeks. The last time I posted a similar chart, 3 weeks ago, I noted that 13 states had rising death rates. Now, it's 29.
 |
| Deaths by State in the US, 2 weeks vs. 2 weeks comparisons |
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