COVID-19 Compilation: Part 34 - November 16-21, 2020

On March 14th, I began posting COVID-19 updates to my facebook page, regarding the status of the COVID-19 pandemic. I have used data from worldometer as a primary source for daily and cumulative data, with frequent supplementation from various national and local sites. 

This blog post compiles the period of November 16th through 21st. 

Some notables for this period:

• Michigan shut down lots of things, including in-person dining.
• Scott Atlas threatened the governor of Michigan, denied doing it, and finally deleted the tweet
• New York City closed its schools
• The single-day world record for deaths was broken 4 times
• The single-day USA record for cases was broken twice
• The single-day world record for cases was broken (just once)
• There were new weekly records for world cases and deaths, and for USA cases
• 29 states set new single-day records for cases
• 11 states set new singe-day records for deaths
• the rise and cases stopped being exponential, suggesting that we may soon crest
• I posted 5 new graphs, for no apparent good reason. (ok, I like that they tell stories I can understand, so that'll be my good good reason...)

see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more

November 16 | November 17 | November 18 | November 19 | November 20 | November 21

NOVEMBER 16

Today's counts
Location	Total Cases	Cases Today	Total Deaths	Deaths Today
World	55.39 million	509,234	1.332 million	7,592
USA	11.54 million	162,516	252,679	767

"Rise up."

In Michigan:

• For the month of June, there were 7,968 new COVID-19 cases.
• For the month of July, there were 257 COVID-19 deaths.
• On September 24th, the positivity rate was 2.8%.
• On September 18th, there were 312 confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations.

• Last Friday, there were 9,179 new COVID-19 cases.
• Last week, there were 431 COVID-19 deaths.
• Last Friday, the positivity rate was 13.9%.
• Today, there are 3,184 confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations.

Yesterday, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer issued an executive order banning in-person high school and college instruction, indoor dining at restaurants and bars, and the closing of some businesses including movie theaters, bowling alleys and casinos.

The political reaction was predictable: Presidential advisor Scott Atlas tweeted an implied threat at the governor, who has previously been the target of a kidnapping plot: "The only way this stops is if people rise up." (note -- the tweet was deleted sometime after Monday evening)

But in Detroit, where the COVID-19 case rates have been the lowest in the state over the past two weeks, Mayor Mike Duggan had a very different reaction: “City of Detroit businesses are being shut down now because of irresponsible behavior in the surrounding communities.”

The highest number of new cases is in Kent County; Donald Trump held his final campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Kent County, on election eve. Other areas with very high case rates are the deep red Ottawa and Muskegon counties just west of Grand Rapids. While Detroit averaged 24 cases per 100,000 people per day last week, the western countries averaged 109 cases per 100,000 people per day.

Case trends in Michigan, from https://www.bridgemi.com

November 16 | November 17 | November 18 | November 19 | November 20 | November 21

NOVEMBER 17

Today's counts
Location	Total Cases	Cases Today	Total Deaths	Deaths Today
World	55.94 million	551,149	1.343 million	10,536
USA	11.70 million	161,645	254,298	1,658

"Covid, Covid, Covid."

On May 17th, Eric Trump said, "And guess what, after November 3, coronavirus will magically all of a sudden go away and disappear and everybody will be able to reopen.”

One week before the election, the President of the United States issued the following tweet:

"Until November 4th., Fake News Media is going full on Covid, Covid, Covid. We are rounding the turn. 99.9%."

It is now 3 weeks since the President's tweet. Let's compare the USA numbers:

USA Numbers before and after October 27th
Dates	Cases	Deaths
Three Weeks ending October 27th	1,308,615	16,278
Three Weeks since October 27th	2,625,884	21,755

Four states set new single-day COVID-19 death records today, and the national total was the highest since July.

We are rounding the turn. 99.9%.

November 16 | November 17 | November 18 | November 19 | November 20 | November 21

NOVEMBER 18

Today's counts
Location	Total Cases	Cases Today	Total Deaths	Deaths Today
World	56.58 million	619,296	1.354 million	10,986
USA	11.88 million	176,790	256,268	1,970

There has been a perception in recent months that COVID-19 is less deadly than it was in the spring: treatments have improved, more vulnerable populations have been shields.

Remember Italy? The original hotspot outside of China? Italy had 753 COVID-19 deaths today, the most there since April 3rd.

How about Poland? 603 people died from COVID-19 in Poland today. That's the equivalent of 5,288 in the USA.

How about the USA? 1,970 people died here, that's the most since May 7th.

Texas became the 40th state to set a new single-day record for cases during November, and in New York City the schools have been temporarily closed.

November 16 | November 17 | November 18 | November 19 | November 20 | November 21

NOVEMBER 19

Today's counts
Location	Total Cases	Cases Today	Total Deaths	Deaths Today
World	57.24 million	657,136	1.366 million	11,022
USA	12.07 million	192,638	258,332	2,064

New York is now the only state for which the April case record remains the single-day high. New Jersey set a new high today with 4,755 new cases, shattering the previous April high there.

Altogether, 12 states set new single-day case records today, including the two most populous states in the country, California and Texas. 42 states have now set single-day highs during November.

More than 2,000 people died from COVID-19 in the United States today, it's the first time since the first week of May that has happened. Tonight's graph: The CDC excess deaths chart. Per the CDC, between 248,998 and 343,269 excess deaths have occurred in the United States due to COVID-19 as of November 7th. CDC numbers are typically several weeks behind, so the actual numbers are likely about 20,000 higher (maybe more, due to the recent surge that hasn't yet been fully tabulated). The graph shows the progression over time, as well as the number posted by worldometer for recorded COVID-19 deaths.

CDC excess deaths data and worldometer totals for the USA, cumulative and weekly, by week

November 16 | November 17 | November 18 | November 19 | November 20 | November 21

NOVEMBER 20

Today's counts
Location	Total Cases	Cases Today	Total Deaths	Deaths Today
World	57.90 million	662,956	1.377 million	11,137
USA	12.28 million	204,179	260,331	1,999

200,000 cases, and some good (?) news.

The USA had more than 200,000 cases today, for the first time. Eleven states had new single-day highs for cases.

So, what's the good news?

After all, cases are up and still rising. 

Deaths are up, too: More than 10,000 people have died in the past week, the most in a half year.

But... for the first time in nearly 2 months, cases are not expanding in the USA at an exponential rate. More on that tomorrow.

Do lockdowns work? That's been a question on my mind a bit lately.

I haven't written about Israel lately.

On September 24th, I wrote, about Israel: "In Israel the government, acting on the insistence of Prime Minister Netanyahu, ordered a full lockdown today. The pandemic czar Ronni Gamzu did not agree with this move, saying, "It's disgusting, I have to take some anti-nausea pills." Israel's 7 day moving averages for both cases and deaths are at record highs, and by the time of my next update (whenever that might be) Israel is likely to have the highest per capita case rate of any country with more than 5 million people."

How did it work out?

• The 7-day moving average for cases spiked to 6,222 on September 29th. The 7-day moving average for deaths spiked to 39 on October 14th.
• Since then, the numbers have come way down.
• On October 16th, the Israeli government eased the lockdown.
• By October 23rd, the 7-day moving average for new cases was less than 1,000, eventually going below 600 per day.
• The 7-day moving average for deaths in Israel is now 4.

November 16 | November 17 | November 18 | November 19 | November 20 | November 21

NOVEMBER 21

Today's counts
Location	Total Cases	Cases Today	Total Deaths	Deaths Today
World	58.48 million	581,150	1.386 million	8,922
USA	12.45 million	172,839	261,790	1,460

This week's counts
Location	Total Cases	Percent Change	Total Deaths	Percent Change
World	4.10 million	+0.8%	67,583	+10.3%
USA	1.22 million	+17.3%	10,570	+32.2%

We'll need more data to know whether we've hit an inflection point. However, the rise in cases decreased substantially last week. The world case count excluding the USA was down week-over-week. In the USA, after 7 consecutive weeks of exponential+ increases in cases, the rate of increase went from 37.5% to 17.3%. If the inflection point was real -- whether due to stricter lockdown measures going in to place across the country or to other factors -- then the case count will start to drop in the next few days.

The death count, not so much. Death, of course, is a trailing indicator. COVID-19 Deaths in the USA hit the highest level this week in more than a half year, and the rise in deaths was the greatest since early April.

The attached charts show the weekly case and deaths in the world and the USA.

COVID-19 cases and deaths, cumulative and weekly, by week

November 16 | November 17 | November 18 | November 19 | November 20 | November 21