COVID-19 Compilation: Part 35 - November 23-29, 2020

On March 14th, I began posting COVID-19 updates to my facebook page, regarding the status of the COVID-19 pandemic. I have used data from worldometer as a primary source for daily and cumulative data, with frequent supplementation from various national and local sites. 

Notables this week:

  • The USA case rate 7-day rolling average went up for the 54th consecutive day
  • The USA death rate 7-day rolling average went up for the 23rd consecutive day
  • The world single death record was set two more times
  • There was a new weekly world death record
  • USA cases and deaths both started going down on Thanksgiving Day

This blog post compiles the period of November 23rd through 29th. see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more

NOVEMBER 23

Today's counts
Location Total Cases Cases Today Total Deaths Deaths Today
World 59.55 million 532,244 1.402 million 8,122
USA 12.80 million 174,906 263,704 989

For the 21st consecutive day, the 7-day rolling average of deaths in the USA went up. During that time, the 7-day average has gone from 848 to 1,579, an increase of 86%

For the 52nd consecutive day, the 7-day rolling average of cases in the USA went up. During that time, the 7-day average has gone from 42,996 to 176,804, an increase of 311%.

The attached chart shows the worldometer data of new cases in the USA, with the 7 day rolling average.

US Daily New Cases with 7-day average
US Daily New Cases with 7-day average

NOVEMBER 24

Today's counts
Location Total Cases Cases Today Total Deaths Deaths Today
World 60.12 million 551,794 1.414 million 11,742
USA 12.96 million 177,103 265,917 2,216

Deaths are starting to catch up, as expected. Wisconsin and Missouri both had more than 100 COVID-19 deaths on a single day today.

As for cases, the most populous two states, Texas and California, both had eye-popping numbers; those two states also combined for more than 300 COVID-19 deaths today.

NOVEMBER 25

Today's counts
Location Total Cases Cases Today Total Deaths Deaths Today
World 60.75 million 621,113 1.416 million 12,055
USA 13.14 million 183,553 268,249 2,332
When November started, Ohio was averaging 11 COVID-19 deaths per day over the prior week.

Today, there were a record 156 COVID-19 deaths in Ohio; the 7-day average is now up to 64.

NOVEMBER 26

when do we get to herd immunity?

Today's counts
Location Total Cases Cases Today Total Deaths Deaths Today
World 61.30 million 547,300 1.437 million 10,923
USA 13.25 million 108,291 269,560 1,311

note - adjustments on Friday updated the totals to the following:
Today's counts
Location Total Cases Cases Today Total Deaths Deaths Today
World 61.36 million 617,783 1.437 million 11,236
USA 13.30 million 158,533 269,686 1,437

For the first time since October 2nd, the 7-day rolling average for cases fell in the United States. This is due, of course, to the Thanksgiving holiday; 19 states did not report new cases today.

There were 964 new cases reported in North Dakota today, brining the total there to 76,442. That means that 10.03% of North Dakota's entire population has now tested positive for COVID-19.

As I noted previously, back in June the head of the CDC, Robert Redfield, estimated that the actual number of people who have had COVID-19 may be as much as 10 times higher than the number of reported cases.

A July study published in JAMA had a finding that "Six to 24 times more infections were estimated per site with seroprevalence than with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case report data."

That study was based on data from San Francisco in late April and New York City in late March, when testing rates were far lower than they are now.

Still, the study published during the July case surge said, "For most sites, it is likely that greater than 10 times more SARS-CoV-2 infections occurred than the number of reported COVID-19 cases; most persons in each site, however, likely had no detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies."

More than 1/10th of the North Dakota population has now tested positive, so a 10 to 1 ratio is no longer possible there. But the questions arise: what *is* the multiple? Is it 6x? And, if it's 6x, wouldn't that mean that around 60% of the population has been exposed? And, if 60% has been exposed, shouldn't herd immunity kicked, like... now?

I should note that the case levels in North Dakota have gone down rather sharply over the past several days, from a 7-day rolling average high of 1,409 on November 18th, to its current level of 1,118.

But it seems to me that the case drop-off in North Dakota is likely the result of things like that state's mask mandate that was imposed on November 14th, of herd immunity (Michigan, which had only about a third of the number of cases per capita as North Dakota, imposed new restrictions on the 15th, and its 7 day rolling average started to fall after the 21st).

NOVEMBER 27

Today's counts
Location Total Cases Cases Today Total Deaths Deaths Today
World 61.98 million 616,974 1.448 million 10,808
USA 13.47 million 167,818 271,041 1,355

As a reminder that the fall surge isn't just in the United States, the following countries all set records for new cases today:
Today's counts
Location Cases Today
Turkey 29,8458
Russia 27,543
Ukraine 16,218
Iran 14,051
Serbia 7,780
Georgia 4,780

In the United States, several states set new "single day" records, though in most cases those states were giving two day reports including Thanksgiving day. The real test in the USA, of course, will be whether the holiday causes yet another spike in cases.

NOVEMBER 28

Today's counts
Location Total Cases Cases Today Total Deaths Deaths Today
World 62.56 million 576,341 1.458 million 9,239
USA 13.61 million 145,232 272,253 1,215
This week's counts
Location Total Cases Percent Change Total Deaths Percent Change
World 4.05 million -1.2% 71,223 +4.6%
USA 1.16 million -5.1% 10,417 -1.8%

Last week, I called out a likely inflection point and said: "If the inflection point was real -- whether due to stricter lockdown measures going in to place across the country or to other factors -- then the case count will start to drop in the next few days."

The drop started on Thursday, Thanksgiving Day. Even correcting for 19 states not reporting data on Thursday, it appears the case count would have dropped starting that day; the 7 day rolling average has continued to drop each of the two days since then. That said, the USA numbers over the past 3 days are likely suppressed somewhat due to the holiday.

Over the first couple weeks of December, it will become clearer what impact, if any, the many USA gatherings during the holiday will have on the case rate.

NOVEMBER 29

Today's counts
Location Total Cases Cases Today Total Deaths Deaths Today
World 63.07 million 508,223 1.465 million 7,435
USA 13.75 million 138,096 273,075 822
7-Day Rolling Averages
Location Cases Change Deaths Change
World 576,768 -1,265 10,141 -53
USA 163,649 -1,926 1,480 -8

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