COVID-19 Compilation: Part 10 - May 17-23, 2020

On March 14th, I began posting daily updates to my facebook page, regarding the status of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a backbone for this, I have used data from worldometers. I had no particular plan at the time, but as things have evolved I have kept going at one post per day, eventually settling on a more or less standard format and one topic per day.

This blog post compiles the period of May 10th through May 16th. I have corrected some typos, augmented with links to original sources, and used some basic html to improve formatting; otherwise these are presented as-is from the original posts.


May 17 | May 18 | May 19 | May 20 | May 21 | May 22 | May 23

MAY 17:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 82,257 new COVID-19 cases today, and 3,617 deaths. In the US, there were 19,891 new cases and 865 deaths.

Worldwide cumulative totals are now 4.80 million cases and 316,519 deaths, with 1.53 million cases and 90,978 deaths in the US.

Standard disclaimers apply for the lower numbers on Sunday.

Worldwide, India is the latest emerging hotspot, with 5,050 new cases today. Bangladesh also had a record 1,273 new cases reported today.

Yesterday I looked at week over week changes to the number of cases in the US. Today, I'll look at deaths, week of May 16th as compared to May 9th.

For cases, I restricted to states with at least 500 new cases in at least one week. As the US has a Case Fatality Rate around 6%, I'll restrict the death comparisons to states with at least 30 deaths in one of the weeks.

That excludes all of the 9 states I excluded yesterday:
Montana, Hawaii, Alaska, Vermont, Wyoming, West Virginia, Idaho, Maine and North Dakota. In addition, this threshold excludes South Dakota, Arkansas, Utah, Oregon and Nebraska.

Among the other 37 states (including the District of Columbia), these had the greatest decline of deaths, week over week:
StateDeaths, Week of 5/9Deaths, Week of 5/16Percent Change
Kentucky 56 30 -46.4%
Oklahoma 32 18 -43.8%
New York 2403 1363 -43.3%
Rhode Island 122 71 -41.7%
Kansas 33 21 -36.4%
Pennsylvania 1022 691 -32.6%
Mississippi 130 89 -31.5%
Michigan 508 354 -30.0%
Florida 352 249 -29.3%
Louisiana 274 212 -22.6%

These states had the greatest increase in cases, or the smallest declines, week over week:
StateDeaths, Week of 5/9Deaths, Week of 5/16Percent Change
Colorado 135 225 66.7%
Tennessee 33 53 60.6%
New Mexico 52 68 30.8%
Delaware 53 65 22.6%
Iowa 77 94 22.1%
Washington 86 93 8.1%
North Carolina 121 125 3.3%
California 503 517 2.8%
Illinois 790 780 -1.3%
Texas 237 229 -3.4%

States in the top 10 for declines in both cases and deaths: Kansas, New York, Kentucky

States in the top 10 for increases in both cases and deaths: North Carolina, Texas, Tennessee

States in the top 10 for declines in cases, but in the top 10 for increases in deaths: Colorado

States in the top 10 for increases in cases, but in the top 10 for declines in deaths:
Louisiana, Oklahoma, Florida

see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 4,798,952 Cases and 316,514 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer


May 17 | May 18 | May 19 | May 20 | May 21 | May 22 | May 23

MAY 18:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 88,852 new COVID-19 cases today, and 3,445 deaths. In the US, there were 22,630 new cases and 1,003 deaths.

Worldwide cumulative totals are now 4.89 million cases and 319,965 deaths, with 1.55 million cases and 91,981 deaths in the US.

Today, Brazil overtook England for 4th overall most recorded cases.

Yesterday, Russia overtook Spain for most cases in Europe; it is 2nd worldwide now only to the US. Of course, the US still have more than 5 times as many recorded cases as Russia.

Many of the original virus hotspots now appear to have the virus increasingly under control. Italy recorded 451 new cases today, its lowest total since February 25th. Spain had its lowest total, 469, since March 6th. Or, put another way: Maryland had more new cases today than Italy and Spain combined.

The past two days, I looked at week over week trends in the United States. Today and tomorrow, I'll look at week over week worldwide. I'll keep it at the week ending May 16th as compared to May 9th, for new cases.

I'm restricting to countries that recorded at least 2,500 new cases in at least one of the two weeks. That's 32 countries. Worldwide, new cases were up 0.3% the week ending May 16th.

These had the greatest decline of new cases, week over week:
CountryCases, Week of 5/9Cases, Week of 5/16Percent Change
France 8282 2707 -67.2%
Italy 8940 6492 -27.4%
Canada 10988 8192 25.7%
UK 33000 24901 -24.5%
Germany 6357 4923 -22.6%
Belgium 3079 2393 -22.3%
Spain 17216 13722 -20.3%
Turkey 12740 10952 -14.0%
USA 186535 160464 -14.0%
Ukraine 3299 3148 -4.6%

These countries had the greatest increase in new cases, week over week:
CountryCases, Week of 5/9Cases, Week of 5/16Percent Change
Ecuador 1607 3692 129.7%
Kuwait 3004 6179 105.7%
Chile 8784 14209 61.8%
South Africa 3084 4935 60.0%
Qatar 6459 9641 49.3%
Bangladesh 4980 7225 45.1%
Colombia 3210 4444 38.4%
UAE 3818 5210 36.5%
Brazil 59502 77081 29.5%
Saudi Arabia 11677 14880 27.4%

see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 4,887,919 Cases and 319,960 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer


May 17 | May 18 | May 19 | May 20 | May 21 | May 22 | May 23

MAY 19:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 94,813 new COVID-19 cases today, and 4,589 deaths. In the US, there were 20,289 new cases and 1,552 deaths.

Worldwide cumulative totals are now 4.98 million cases and 324,554 deaths, with 1.57 million cases and 93,533 deaths in the US.

Per worldometers data, sometime early tomorrow we'll pass 5 million recorded cases.

Countries with new single-day highs today:
CountryNew CasesPrevious High
Brazil 16,517 15,305
India 6,147 5,050
Peru 4,550 4,298
Chile 3,520 2,660

In the US, Maryland had a new high of 1,784 cases and also had 58 deaths, including a 15-year old who had contracted Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) Associated with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Yesterday, I looked at week over week trends for cases worldwide. week over week for deaths, worldwide. I'll keep it at the week ending May 16th as compared to May 9th.

I'm restricting to countries that recorded at least 100 new deaths in at least one of the two weeks. That's 30 countries. Worldwide, new deaths were down 8.1% the week ending May 16th.

These countries had the greatest decline of deaths, week over week:
CountryDeaths, Week of 5/9Deaths, Week of 5/16Percent Change
Belgium 816 424 -48.0%
Ireland 160 87 -45.6%
Netherlands 435 248 -43.0%
Germany 737 478 -35.1%
Portugal 103 77 -25.2%
Spain 1378 1085 -21.3%
USA 12593 10078 -20.0%
Iran 433 348 -19.6%
Italy 1685 1368 -18.8%
Sweden 551 454 -17.6%

These countries had the greatest increase in deaths, week over week:
CountryDeaths, Week of 5/9Deaths, Week of 5/16Percent Change
Ecuador 346 971 180.6%
Bangladesh 39 100 156.4%
Chile 57 117 105.3%
Mexico 1188 1607 35.3%
Brazil 3906 4977 27.4%
Ukraine 97 121 24.7%
Russia 605 710 17.4%
Peru 614 709 15.5%
Philippines 101 113 11.9%
Poland 121 130 7.5%

Countries in the top 10 for declines in both cases and deaths: Italy, Germany, Belgium, Spain, USA

Countries in the top 10 for increases in both cases and deaths: Ecuador, Chile, Bangladesh, Brazil. Ecuador topped the increases for both list, and per many prior reports Ecuador is almost certainly underreporting.

Countries in the top 10 for declines in cases, but in the top 10 for increases in deaths: Ukraine

see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 4,971,332 Cases and 324,191 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer


May 17 | May 18 | May 19 | May 20 | May 21 | May 22 | May 23

MAY 20:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 99,724 new COVID-19 cases today, and 4,750 deaths. In the US, there were 21,408 new cases and 1,461 deaths.

Worldwide cumulative totals are now 5.08 million cases and 329,294 deaths, with 1.59 million cases and 94,994 deaths in the US.

Per worldometers, for the first time since March 21st the United States did not lead the world in new COVID-19 cases today. Brazil, with 21,472 new cases, took that "honor."

UPDATE: An after-hours update revised the US case count up to 22,140 cases, and the death count down to 1,403 deaths. Updated world totals are 100,474 new cases, with 4,685 deaths. It is the 2nd day with more than 100,000 cases worldwide.

On April 29th, I looked at the CDC data for flu deaths by state, going back to 2014. At the time, 8 states had more COVID-19 deaths than in any of the 5 flu years on the CDC site. We are now up to 13 states that have passed that awful threshold.

Since then, even as the US death toll from COVID-19 has climbed up towards 100,000, we continue to see pundits comparing COVID-19 to the flu, as if they are in the same order of magnitude. One example even tries to claim that Woodstock occurred in the middle of the Hong Kong flu pandemic (it didn't; it occurred between waves).

But there's a hitch in the CDC flu deaths numbers by state: They are for "P&I," that is, "pneumonia and influenza." As I had noted back on April 9th, the annual CDC reports for flu mortality include not just pneumonia, but "other respiratory and circulatory causes (R&C), or other non-respiratory, non-circulatory causes of death."

Comparing COVID-19 deaths to CDC reports of flu deaths is not a comparison of like things.

I decided to check what some states publish, to see if any separate out flu from the pneumonia and other deaths counted by the CDC. For some states this data was not easy to find, and others simply published links to the CDC. I selected 6 states for which at least some data, including the 2018 pandemic year, was easily retrievable: California, Colorado, Iowa, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Indiana.

First I checked California. In the pandemic year of 2018, the CDC posted a number of 6,340 P&I deaths in California, or a bit more than 10% of the national total. The state of California reports 1,667 flu deaths for that same year, also a bit more than 10% of the CDC published total of 15,620 influenza deaths (not P&I) for the same year. California publishes data going back to 2015; in no other year was the total above 579 flu deaths. The total of flu deaths in California for 2015 through 2019 is 3,484. The number of COVID-19 deaths so far in California is reported to be 3,512.

Then I looked at Colorado. Colorado posts both influenza-only deaths as well as P&I numbers going all the way back to 2000. The P&I numbers closely mirror what CDC posts for Colorado. The 2018 pandemic year, Colorado had 150 flu deaths (not P&I). Grand total for 2000-2019, Colorado had 989 flu deaths. So far, COVID-19 is reported to have caused 1,299 deaths in Colorado -- 31% more than the total number of flu deaths for 2 full decades.

In Indiana, a note on the state website for 2013 said, "A total of 72 influenza deaths have been reported and have had a positive influenza test for the 2012/2013 season." Indiana counted all 72 as influenza deaths; presumably even the ones who actually died from something else (a popular recent complaint with COVID-19 reporting).

In the relatively light flu season of 2012, North Carolina reported a total of 9 flu deaths; Indiana reported 3. In the pandemic year of 2018, they combined for 727 flu deaths. So far, COVID-19 has caused 2,590 deaths across those two states.

All 6 states have COVID-19 fatality impact significantly greater than the 2018 pandemic totals.

see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 5,079,896 Cases and 329,181 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer


May 17 | May 18 | May 19 | May 20 | May 21 | May 22 | May 23

MAY 21:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 107,085 new COVID-19 cases today, and 4,934 deaths. In the US, there were 28,179 new cases and 1,418 deaths.

Worldwide cumulative totals are now 5.19 million cases and 334,173 deaths, with 1.62 million cases and 96,354 deaths in the US.

107,085 new cases is a new world record for a single day, easily topping the prior high of 101,884 set on April 24th. (note that this is per worldometers tallies; WHO tallies and timing tend to vary somewhat and per the WHO counting methods a new high was set yesterday)

And, while there were new single-day records again in India and Bangladesh, and while Iran had its highest total since April 5th, it really wasn't any single country driving up the totals. Rather, it was 16 countries with more than 1,000 new cases; 11 with more than 2,000.

The worldwide death toll is comparatively modest, but with Russian and Brazil now as leaders in the case count, with both countries widely assumed to be underreporting COVID-19 deaths, the not-yet-explosive death count is not surprising. Even so, Brazil recorded a record 1,188 deaths.

The United States had its most new cases since May 8th. But consider:

Two weeks ago, the US case total stood at 29,531. Today's numbers show a 49% decline in new cases for New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, as compared to then. and a 7% rise for the rest of the country. And again, it wasn't any single state driving up the totals; it was 11 states with more than 1,000 new cases, and 8 more above 500.

see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 5,189,178 Cases and 334,072 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer


May 17 | May 18 | May 19 | May 20 | May 21 | May 22 | May 23

MAY 22:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 107,716 new COVID-19 cases today, and 5,252 deaths. In the US, there were 24,197 new cases and 1,293 deaths.

Worldwide cumulative totals are now 5.30 million cases and 339,425 deaths, with 1.65 million cases and 97,647 deaths in the US.

The death total is somewhat inflated due to 632 deaths reported by Spain from Catalonia, that had occurred prior to today.

Just like that, we now have consecutive days of new record for most worldwide cases.

Just like that, Brazil has jumped ahead of Russia for total number of confirmed cases, and is #2 in the world.

India and Mexico set new daily records for cases again, and Mexico topped 400 deaths for the 2nd consecutive day.

In the USA: Just like that, California topped 2300 new cases on consecutive days for the first time. Texas now has more total cases than Michigan.

Wisconsin had a stay at home order struck down in the courts last week; Michigan's stay at home order survived a court challenge. Today, Wisconsin had 511 new cases; Michigan had 403.

Also in Michigan, hospital inpatients has dropped to 955 as of Thursday; on April 16th (the date the state first started publishing this data) the number was 3,674. On April 6th, more than 41% of Michigan's 4,799 tests were positive. Today, there were 403 positive test results and 17,769 tests.

The new cases in Michigan? Kent County, home to Amway, the DeVos family and with Grand Rapids the core of right wing Michigan, is now seeing growth in new cases over the past week that is 7 times the rate of suburban Oakland County, where I live.

Just like that.

see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 5,303,393 Cases and 339,992 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer


May 17 | May 18 | May 19 | May 20 | May 21 | May 22 | May 23

MAY 23:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 99,872 new COVID-19 cases today, and 4,183 deaths. In the US, there were 21,929 new cases and 1,036 deaths.

Worldwide cumulative totals are now 5.40 million cases and 343,608 deaths, with 1.67 million cases and 98,683 deaths in the US.

Today and tomorrow, I'll look at week over week cases change worldwide, and in the US. The weeks compared will be the week ending today, May 23rd, against the week of May 16th.

I'm restricting to countries that recorded at least 2,500 new cases in at least one of the two weeks. That's 33 countries. Worldwide, new cases were up 10.0% the week ending May 23rd.

These had the greatest decline of new cases, week over week:
CountryCases, Week of 5/16Cases, Week of 5/23Percent Change
Spain 13722 5865 -57.3%
UK 24901 16993 -31.8%
Turkey 10952 7619 30.4%
Italy 6492 4567 -29.7%
Singapore 4896 3712 -24.2%
Germany 4923 3739 -24.1%
Ukraine 3148 2722 -13.5%
Russia 73367 63839 -13.0%
Sweden 3756 3511 -6.5%
Ecuador 3692 3495 -5.3%

These countries had the greatest increase in new cases, week over week:
CountryCases, Week of 5/16Cases, Week of 5/23Percent Change
Egypt 2755 4794 74.0%
Argentina 2039 3548 74.0%
Chile 14209 23965 68.7%
Bangladesh 7225 11083 53.4%
Afghanistan 2369 3596 51.8%
Brazil 77081 114256 48.2%
India 27840 40775 46.5%
South Africa 4935 6988 41.6%
Indonesia 3380 4720 39.6%
Pakistan 10063 13638 35.5%

Countries among the biggest declines each of the past two weeks:
Italy, UK, Germany, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine

Countries among the biggest increases each of the past two weeks:
Chile, South Africa, Bangladesh, Brazil

Countries among the biggest increases last week that are among the biggest declines this week:
Ecuador

The USA showed a decline of 0.9%, week over week, as compared to a decline of 14.0% last week.

see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 5,397,778 Cases and 343,596 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

May 17 | May 18 | May 19 | May 20 | May 21 | May 22 | May 23

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