COVID-19 Compilation: Part 9 - May 10-16, 2020

On March 14th, I began posting daily updates to my facebook page, regarding the status of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a backbone for this, I have used data from worldometers. I had no particular plan at the time, but as things have evolved I have kept going at one post per day, eventually settling on a more or less standard format and one topic per day.

This blog post compiles the period of May 10th through May 16th. I have corrected some typos, augmented with links to original sources, and used some basic html to improve formatting; otherwise these are presented as-is from the original posts.

May 10 | May 11 | May 12 | May 13 | May 14 | May 15 | May 16

MAY 10:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 79,875 new COVID-19 cases today, and 3,510 deaths. In the US, there were 20,319 new cases and 750 deaths.

Worldwide cumulative totals are now 4.18 million cases and 283,734 deaths, with 1.37 million cases and 80,787 deaths in the US.

As I've noted for at least the past 5 Sundays, the reported numbers are often significantly lower on Sundays.

Nonetheless, the case and death numbers for the US are the lowest since March 29th; this is the first day with less than 1,000 COVID-19 deaths in the US (per the worldometers numbers) since March 30th.

New York reports a drop of 514 COVID-19 hospitalizations, as well as a drop of 176 ICU cases, about 6.6% for each.

Worldwide: There were 802 new cases in Italy today. That is the first time the new case count has been under 1,000 since March 10, and is the lowest number there since March 6th. Russia accounted for more than 48% of the new cases in Europe today.

India had 4,353 new cases, a new record there. India had more cases than the UK today.

Worldwide cases marked as "serious and critical" (generally, ICU cases) dropped today to 47,040, a drop of more than 1% from Saturday.

Worldwide, the fastest growth of new cases of the past week, among countries with at least 10,000 total cases, has been in:
CountryRate of Growth
Brazil60.9%
India58.0%
Russia55.7%
Bangladesh55.0%
Mexico51.5%
Pakistan51.0%
South Africa47.6%
Chile46.8%
Peru46.5%
Qatar44.8%

The slowest growth has been in:
CountryRate of Growth
Montana0.0%
Hawaii0.8%
Alaska1.3%
Vermont1.7%
New York1.8%
Louisiana3.8%
Idaho4.0%
Michigan4.9%
Arkansas5.1%
New Jersey6.0%

The United States is at 15.1% for the past week, which is 19th out of the 44 countries with 10,000 or more cases.

see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 4,179,839 Cases and 283,850 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

May 10 | May 11 | May 12 | May 13 | May 14 | May 15 | May 16

MAY 11:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 74,228 new COVID-19 cases today, and 3,403 deaths. In the US, there were 18,196 new cases and 1,008 deaths.

Worldwide cumulative totals are now 4.25 million cases and 287,137 deaths, with 1.39 million cases and 81,794 deaths in the US.

For the US, today is the first day below 20,000 new cases since March 28th.

New York had its fewest new cases since March 17th. New York numbers are one day behind, so the numbers for today reflect what happened on Sunday, and this is the 7th consecutive week in which the Sunday number for New York was less than the Saturday number which had been less than the Friday number; the Sunday numbers have typically been around 40% lower than the Friday numbers.

In separate news about New York, a CDC report showed about 5,293 "excess" deaths in New York City over the past two months that have not already been accounted for by confirmed or probable COVID-19 cases. This potentially raises the mortality in New York City due to COVID-19 by 28%.

see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 4,254,193 Cases and 287,257 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

May 10 | May 11 | May 12 | May 13 | May 14 | May 15 | May 16

MAY 12:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 85,335 new COVID-19 cases today, and 5,320 deaths. In the US, there were 22,802 new cases and 1,630 deaths.

Worldwide cumulative totals are now 4.34 million cases and 292,451 deaths, with 1.41 million cases and 83,425 deaths in the US.

For the first time in 60 days, New York did not lead the United States in new cases. That honor goes to Illinois, which posted a record 4,014 new cases, well above the prior state record of 3,137. This is no doubt due in large part to a record number of tests in Illinois, 29166; the prior record there was 20,671.

A report in the New York Times on Monday noted that Moscow had more than 1,700 excess deaths in April as compared to the annual average of the past 5 years, nearly triple the 642 deaths reported as COVID-19.

Per the report: "Over all, about 70 percent of coronavirus-related deaths have not been reported in Moscow and about 80 percent in the country’s regions, said Aleksei I. Raksha, an independent demographer in Moscow."

There are officially 2,116 COVID-19 deaths in Russia. If Mr. Raksha is correct, then there has been an undercount in the Russian death toll by about 6,500, so far.

A New York Times report this past Friday about Mexico noted that "Mexico City officials have tabulated more than 2,500 deaths from the virus and from serious respiratory illnesses that doctors suspect were related to Covid-19... Yet the federal government is reporting about 700 in the area."

And, as I noted yesterday, a CDC report showed about 5,293 "excess" deaths in New York City over the past two months that have not already been accounted for by confirmed or probable COVID-19 cases.

There are many other examples, both within the United States and around the world. As high as the official counts are for COVID-19, the reality is a much higher death toll.

see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 4,336,895 Cases and 292,369 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

May 10 | May 11 | May 12 | May 13 | May 14 | May 15 | May 16

MAY 13:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 88,219 new COVID-19 cases today, and 5,314 deaths. In the US, there were 21,712 new cases and 1,772 deaths.

Worldwide cumulative totals are now 4.43 million cases and 297,765 deaths, with 1.43 million cases and 85,197 deaths in the US.

Over the course of the 60 days I have been writing nightly updates, one of the more persistent themes has been to examine the reliability of the official counts of cases and deaths, both worldwide and here in the United States.

  • On March 20th, I highlighted a report out of Bergamo, Italy, that suggested the official death toll there for COVID-19 accounted for just 30% of the excess deaths in the first half of March.
  • On April 2nd, I highlighted reporting that deaths in Wuhan, China, might have been understated by as much as 90%.
  • On April 10th and 11th, the focus turned to a study in Germany suggesting that the number of people who had had COVID-19 was four times the official rate.
  • On April 24th, it was Ecuador. 
  • Since then, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, and, of course, New York.

The basic story was always the same: The official counts of cases and deaths routinely understated the true impact, often by thousands. This is sometimes a matter of capacity (e.g., New York, Italy) and sometimes it's systemic (e.g., Brazil, Russia), but the net result is the same.

We also saw, during the past few weeks, efforts in various places to improve the accuracy of their fatality reporting: In New York on April 15th, in Connecticut a week later, and in the UK a week after that. Although this has led to disparate counting standards even among different US States, in general the effect was to get the COVID-19 death counts more closely aligned with the numbers of excess deaths in these locations.

Today, an article in The Daily Beast was titled, "Team Trump Pushes CDC to Revise Down Its COVID Death Counts." An excerpt: "Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the administration’s coronavirus task force, has urged CDC officials to exclude from coronavirus death-count reporting some of those individuals who either do not have confirmed lab results and are presumed positive or who have the virus and may not have died as a direct result of it."

If Birx gets her way, we may see the official CDC death counts in the US go down.

Excess mortality, however, will remain. The reporting from Italy, Ecuador, Russia, Mexico and New York has all focused on excess mortality as a basis for calculating the probable death impact of COVID-19.

Per CDC data updated earlier today, excess mortality in the US for the 5 weeks ending April 25, 2020, was 65,410. The US death count posted that same day on worldometers was 54,256.

see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 4,427,900 Cases and 298,077 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

May 10 | May 11 | May 12 | May 13 | May 14 | May 15 | May 16

MAY 14:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 96,370 new COVID-19 cases today, and 5,317 deaths. In the US, there were 27,246 new cases and 1,715 deaths.

Worldwide cumulative totals are now 4.52 million cases and 303,082 deaths, with 1.46 million cases and 86,912 deaths in the US.

If you thought that maybe the US and World totals had turned the corner, consider: The World total for new cases was the 3rd highest to date. Brazil reported 13,761 new cases, easily shattering its previous record. Peru had a record 4,298 new cases, which was more than either the UK or India. Saudi Arabia had more than 2,000 cases for a new record.

The United States total was under 30,000 for the 13th consecutive day but was the highest in 6 days.

New York accounted for only 8% of the new cases in the United States today, which is the lowest since the earliest days of the pandemic. While New York cases are down, other areas are up. For example, Texas, which set a record for new cases yesterday, easily set a new 2-day record today; there have been nearly 3,000 new cases in Texas these past 2 days.

Another emerging hotspot is Southern California. An Orange County Register report today was titled, "Why coronavirus is spreading faster in Southern California than the rest of the state." It noted, "Since April 13, Santa Clara County’s hospital count fell from 217 to 84 on Tuesday — a 61% drop. Orange County, meanwhile, saw the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients during the same period rise from 230 to 348 — a 51% jump." And that was before today's numbers were published: Orange County's record of 229 new cases today was 46% higher than the prior record, set just yesterday. Los Angeles County reported more new cases than Germany.

see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 4,525,166 Cases and 303,361 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

May 10 | May 11 | May 12 | May 13 | May 14 | May 15 | May 16

MAY 15:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 99,401 new COVID-19 cases today, and 5,072 deaths. In the US, there were 26,692 new cases and 1,595 deaths.

Worldwide cumulative totals are now 4.62 million cases and 308,154 deaths, with 1.48 million cases and 88,507 deaths in the US.

Today's total of cases worldwide was the 2nd highest to date. The four highest totals, and 6 of the highest 9, have been on Fridays. Presumably there's a pattern in reporting of test results that accounts for this.

Today's numbers include another new high for Brazil, with 15,305 new cases. Mexico topped 2,000 cases for the first time, with 2,409. In the United States, Texas continues to be the emerging hotspot, with a record 2,012 new cases today. Curiously, death are *not* up worldwide or in the US.

Yesterday, the CDC issued an alert for "Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) Associated with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)." The warning concerned "increased reports of previously healthy children presenting with a severe inflammatory syndrome with Kawasaki disease-like features." This started first with a few cases in the UK, and later with more than 100 cases in New York City, generally with patients ages 2-15. According to a CNN report, the condition has been observed in at least 18 US States. There are few fatalities reported due to MIS-C, but this appears to be another impact of COVID-19.

see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 4,621,116 Cases and 308,132 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

May 10 | May 11 | May 12 | May 13 | May 14 | May 15 | May 16

MAY 16:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 95,603 new COVID-19 cases today, and 4,360 deaths. In the US, there were 23,488 new cases and 1,218 deaths.

Worldwide cumulative totals are now 4.72 million cases and 312,902 deaths, with 1.51 million cases and 90,113 deaths in the US.

It is not inconceivable that Brazil could overtake the United States for most daily cases soon. Brazil's 816 deaths today were more per capita than the US total, and the total new cases of 14,919 was barely below the US per capita.

India, Saudi Arabia and Mexico all set single day records for new cases.

Turning attention to the US: The Saturday total of new cases and for deaths were both the lowest for a Saturday since March 28th.

For the week ending May 16th, the US had 160,464 new cases and 10,076 COVID-19 deaths. These represent declines of 14.0% and 20.0%, respectively, as compared to the week ending May 9th.

In the 50 states + the District of Columbia, 9 states reported fewer than 500 new cases each week: Montana, Hawaii, Alaska, Vermont, Wyoming, West Virginia, Idaho, Maine and North Dakota.

Among the other 42, these states had the greatest decline of cases, week over week:
StateCases, Week of 5/9Cases, Week of 5/16Percent Change
Kansas 2189 1093 -50.1%
New Jersey 16862 7810 -47.4%
New York 24196 14690 -39.3%
Nebraska 2908 1986 -31.7%
Missouri 1482 1022 -31.0%
South Dakota 805 566 -29.7%
Colorado 3150 2258 -28.3%
District of Columbia 1305 940 -28.0%
Massachusetts 10480 8190 -21.9%
Kentucky 1561 1248 -20.1%

These states had the greatest increase in cases, week over week:
StateCases, Week of 5/9Cases, Week of 5/16Percent Change
Arkansas 375 831 121.6%
North Carolina 2900 3651 25.9%
Texas 7500 9030 20.4%
Tennessee 2107 2520 19.6%
Virginia 5465 6487 18.7%
Louisiana 2277 2700 18.6%
Oklahoma 639 747 16.9%
Georgia 4250 4630 8.9%
South Carolina 1042 1130 8.4%
Florida 4538 4810 6.0%

There are obvious speculation points as to why some states are where they are, week over week. Several states showing declines had previously had spikes due to specific locations within those states (e.g., Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Colorado). Nearly all of the states showing increases have either recently opened up, or have had significant public agitation for "re-opening."

Trends in new cases and trends in deaths don't always match; I'll look at the death trends tomorrow.

see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 4,716,928 Cases and 312,902 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

May 10 | May 11 | May 12 | May 13 | May 14 | May 15 | May 16

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