COVID-19 Compilation: Part 7 - April 26 - May 2, 2020

On March 14th, I began posting daily updates to my facebook page, regarding the status of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a backbone for this, I have used data from worldometers. I had no particular plan at the time, but as things have evolved I have kept going at one post per day, eventually settling on a more or less standard format and one topic per day.

This blog post compiles the period of April 26th through May 2nd. I have corrected some typos, augmented with links to original sources, and used some basic html to improve formatting; otherwise these are presented as-is from the original posts.


Apr 26 | Apr 27 | Apr 28 | Apr 29 | Apr 30 | May 1 | May 2

APRIL 26:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 73,859 new COVID-19 cases today, and 3,751 deaths. In the US, there were 26,509 new cases and 1,157 deaths.

The world total for deaths is the lowest since March 29th, and the US total is the lowest since March 31st. Here in Michigan, there were 575 new cases, the lowest total since March 25th. As usual, reported numbers are lower on Sunday.

Worldwide cumulative totals are now 2.99 million cases and 206,915 deaths, with 987,160 cases and 55,413 deaths in the US.

Several "milestone" numbers have occurred recently or will be occurring imminently. Here are a few:

On Friday, the US became the world leader in cases marked as "recovered." The US now has 118,779 cases marked as "recovered," just ahead of Spain and Germany.

Yesterday, worldwide deaths passed 200,000.

Today, the US passed 50,000 deaths for the month of April. COVID-19 is now the leading cause of death in the United States. Heart disease kills about 1,774 Americans per day on average; so far in April COVID-19 has averaged 1933 deaths.

Sometime in the next 24 hours, the US will have its 1,000,000th total case. Also in the next 24 hours, we will get the 3,000,000th total case worldwide.

see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 2,993,131 Cases and 206,911 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer


Apr 26 | Apr 27 | Apr 28 | Apr 29 | Apr 30 | May 1 | May 2

APRIL 27:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 69,746 new COVID-19 cases today, and 4,532 deaths. In the US, there were 23,196 new cases and 1,384 deaths.

The number of worldwide new cases is the lowest since March 30th, and the number of new cases in the US is the lowest since March 29th.

Worldwide cumulative totals are now 3.06 million cases and 211,433 deaths, with 1.01 million cases and 56,796 deaths in the US.

Earlier this month, we had as many as 11 US States with more than 1,000 new cases on a single day; today there were 5.

Here in Michigan, there were 432 new cases, the least since March 23rd. At one time, Michigan had the 3rd most cases in the United States, now Michigan is 7th.

Nationally, the total number of ICU cases fell for the first time, from 15,143 to 14,186. In New York the number of active cases fell by more than 10,000.

New York still has the most cases and deaths on a daily basis, but over the week the rate of growth of total cases in New York, 18.2%, is 41st in the country, despite having by far the most testing in the country.

The 2 states where new confirmed cases have grown at the fastest pace over the past week are:

CountyPercent Increase
Nebraska103.8%
Iowa85.8%%

Neither of these states have implemented lockdowns. The other 3 states that held out from lockdowns are:
  • Arkansas -- 4th fastest expansion of new cases over the past week
  • North Dakota -- 9th
  • South Dakota -- 23rd
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more Coronavirus Update (Live): 3,060,407 Cases and 211,244 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer


Apr 26 | Apr 27 | Apr 28 | Apr 29 | Apr 30 | May 1 | May 2

APRIL 28:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 76,562 new COVID-19 cases today, and 6,365 deaths. In the US, there were 25,409 new cases and 2,470 deaths.

Worldwide cumulative totals are now 3.14 million cases and 217,813 deaths, with 1.04 million cases and 59,266 deaths in the US.

The US death total has now surpassed, in barely one month, the entirety of the US death total sustained during the decade-long Vietnam War.

On Sunday, the Financial Times published a report on excess deaths across 14 countries in March and April 2020 as compared to the average for the same period between 2015 and 2019. The analysis led to this headline: "Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported."

Salient quotes from the report:

“If we want to . . . [understand] the ways different countries have responded to the surging pandemic and how [it] has affected the health of the population, the best way is to count excess deaths,” said David Leon, professor of epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

"Experts have warned of serious under-reporting of Covid-19 cases in residential facilities for the elderly, who are particularly vulnerable to the virus. “Very few countries appear to be testing people in care homes, staff and residents, systematically,” said Adelina Comas-Herrera, research fellow at the Care Policy and Evaluation Centre of the London School of Economics.

"Even the much higher numbers of deaths in the pandemic suggested by excess mortality statistics are likely to be conservative, as lockdowns mean that “mortality from numerous conditions such as traffic accidents and occupational injuries possibly went down”, said Markéta Pechholdová, assistant professor of demography at the University of Economics, Prague.

see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 3,136,232 Cases and 217,799 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer


Apr 26 | Apr 27 | Apr 28 | Apr 29 | Apr 30 | May 1 | May 2

APRIL 29:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 81,678 new COVID-19 cases today, and 6,593 deaths. In the US, there were 28,429 new cases and 2,390 deaths.

Worldwide cumulative totals are now 3.22 million cases and 228,030 deaths, with 1.06 million cases and 61,656 deaths in the US.

Counting methods continue to evolve. In the UK, up through yesterday "deaths were reported by NHS England and only included deaths in NHS-commissioned services of patients who have tested positively for COVID-19." As of today UK numbers are taken from 3 different sources, including some who had not died in hospitals. The net result was the addition of more than 3,600 cases to the UK's overall death total.

In the US, the number of deaths now surpasses the 61,099 Americans estimated to have perished as a result of the "pandemic flu" season of 2017-18.

The CDC also keeps tallies on leading causes of death, by state; the years 2014-2018 are currently presented on the CDC website. Curiously, the numbers don't seem to correspond to the national numbers -- the states average about 56,000 per year with a high of 59,041, while the national average is about 42,000 per year with the high of 61,099. I haven't yet figured out the methodology differences.

The state by state numbers allow for a comparison of deaths due to COVID-19, as compared to deaths due to influenza.

By that comparison, 8 states now have more COVID-19 deaths than the maximum of any of those 5 years due to influenza:
  • Colorado
  • Connecticut
  • Louisiana
  • Massachusetts
  • Michigan
  • New Jersey
  • New York
  • Rhode Island
In addition, 5 states have now surpassed the death total from influenza for at least one of those years:
  • Delaware
  • Illinois
  • Indiana
  • Maryland
  • Washington
New Jersey and New York both have more COVID-19 deaths than the combined totals of influenza deaths from 2014 through 2018.

Of the remaining 37 states, just 4 -- Georgia, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Vermont -- have more than 50% of the death impact so far from COVID-19 official numbers as the lowest influenza total from 2014-18. That will surely change, but it may also be a factor in the political divide arising in this country over various impacts of COVID-19 reporting as well as associated local and federal policies.

see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 3,219,242 Cases and 228,194 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer


Apr 26 | Apr 27 | Apr 28 | Apr 29 | Apr 30 | May 1 | May 2

APRIL 30:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 86,037 new COVID-19 cases today, and 5,801 deaths. In the US, there were 30,829 new cases and 2,201 deaths.

Worldwide cumulative totals are now 3.30 million cases and 233,830 deaths, with 1.10 million cases and 63,856 deaths in the US.

In the United States, New York did not lead in deaths today; that grim title went to New Jersey.

Worldwide, we passed 1 million cases listed as "recovered" yesterday. The actual number is no doubt far more than that, as most cases are still never tests, and also many countries are not reporting recoveries in their daily reports (e.g., the UK, the Netherlands, and Norway).

Among countries with at least 1,000 documented cases, the following lists those countries with the highest and lowest percentages of cases marked as "recovered." The rates inevitably vary with where a country is on its "curve," the amount of testing done in the country, and the accuracy of the country's reporting.

Highest percentage of cases shown as recovered:

RankCountyPercent Recovered
1China93.7%
2Iceland92.9%
3Thailand90.9%
4Luxembourg84,9%
5Australia84.6%
6South Korea84.2%
7New Zealand84.1%
8Austria83.5%
9Hong Kong81.5%
10Iran79.4%
11Switzerland79.1%
12Germany75.8%
13Azerbaijan73.4%
14Denmark71.5%
15Malaysia69.5%
16Iraq65.9%
17Ireland64.9%
18Croatia64.9%
19Mexico64.2%
20Finland60.1%

Lowest percentage of cases shown as recovered:

RankCountyPercent Recovered
1Bangladesh2.1%
2Sweden4.8%
3Portugal6.1%
4Ecuador6.2%
5Singapore7.7%
6Panama8.3%
7Ghana10.2%
8Qatar10.2%
9Bolivia10.5%
10Russia10.9%
11Ukraine11.9%
12Afghanistan12.0%
13Philippines12.4%
14Saudi Arabia13.9%
15USA13.9%
16Estonia14.7%
17Serbia14.9%
18Indonesia15.0%
19Slovenia16.3%
20Nigeria16.5%

see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 3,307,660 Cases and 234,074 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer


Apr 26 | Apr 27 | Apr 28 | Apr 29 | Apr 30 | May 1 | May 2

MAY 1:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 94,552 new COVID-19 cases today, and 5,624 deaths. In the US, there were 36,007 new cases and 1,897 deaths.

Worldwide cumulative totals are now 3.40 million cases and 239,448 deaths, with 1.13 million cases and 65,753 deaths in the US.

None of the daily numbers for the US or world are records.

That said, today was a (so far) uniquely awful day in the US. While the number of deaths fell for the 3 straight day, the number of cases was the 2nd highest ever, behind last Friday.

Thirteen different states registered at least 1,000 new COVID-19 cases today, and Twenty One registered at least 500 new cases. These are easily the highest numbers I've seen.

Several states obliterated prior records for cases in one day. Where New York's outbreak once dominated the national numbers, accounting for a third of all cases as of 2 weeks ago, today New York accounted for 12% of the national total. Nine states and DC had more new cases per capita than New York today.

Several states are showing large increases in new cases despite running tests at relatively low levels.

For example: Nebraska has averaged 1349 tests per day over the past week, or 0.07% of its population, state-wide. Today Nebraska had 557 new cases (in general, test results take several days from the date of the test).

Iowa has averaged 1946 tests per day over the past week, or 0.06% of its population, state-wide. Today, Iowa reported 739 new cases.

And Washington, DC, which has averaged just 657 tests over the past week (0.10% of its population), reported 335 new cases today.

In short, these numbers are bad, and they're nationwide.

see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more


Apr 26 | Apr 27 | Apr 28 | Apr 29 | Apr 30 | May 1 | May 2

MAY 2:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:

Worldwide, there were 83,257 new COVID-19 cases today, and 5,215 deaths. In the US, there were 29.744 new cases and 1,691 deaths.

Worldwide cumulative totals are now 3.48 million cases and 244,663 deaths, with 1.16 million cases and 67,444 deaths in the US.

A couple days ago, I took a look at the countries with the highest and lowest percentages of cases marked as "recovered." As with countries, the rates inevitably vary with where a state is on its "curve," the amount of testing done in the state, and the accuracy of the state's reporting.

Tonight, a look at the US States with the highest and lowest percentages of cases marked as "recovered." worldometers does not publish this data, but it is easy to calculate from the numbers that they do publish, by state. The numbers below are the percentages of the total cases that are not active and are not deaths.

Note: The following 19 states are not reporting recoveries on a regular basis; therefore I am excluding them: Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New Jersey, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia.

For Texas I am using one of worldometers' source sites, as the worldometers data appears to be incorrect.

RankCountyPercent Recovered
1Montana88.8%
2Hawaii87.3%
3South Carolina75.2%
4Alaska71.5%
5South Dakota68.0%
6Wyoming67.5%
7Oklahoma62.3%
8Maine59.8%
9Arkansas58.9%
10Nevada54.7%
11Texas48.8%
12Mississippi45.9%
13Tennessee45.2%
14North Dakota44.2%
15Utah43.9%
16Wisconsin41.9%
17New Hampshire41.9%
18Minnesota38.5%
19Iowa36.5%
20Michigan36.2%
21Oregon32.6%
22Delaware30.7%
23Missouri23.0%
24New Mexico20.4%
25Kansas19.5%
26New York15.8%
27North Carolina15.6%
28District of Columbia13.9%
29Virginia13.0%
30California7.3%
31Maryland6.2%
32Pennsylvania1.6%

Not counting the states that are not reporting, the USA recovery rate overall would be at 20.7%, as compared to the 13.8% rate currently published at worldometers.

see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 3,484,176 Cases and 244,778 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Apr 26 | Apr 27 | Apr 28 | Apr 29 | Apr 30 | May 1 | May 2

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