COVID-19 Compilation: Part 3 - March 29 - April 4, 2020
On March 14th, I began posting daily updates to my facebook page, regarding the status of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a backbone for this, I have used data from worldometers. I had no particular plan at the time, but as things have evolved I have kept going at one post per day, eventually settling on a more or less standard format and one topic per day.
This blog post compiles the period of March 29th through April 4th. I have corrected some typos, augmented with links to original sources, and used some basic html to improve formatting; otherwise these are presented as-is from the original posts.
Mar 29 | Mar 30 | Mar 31 | Apr 1 | Apr 2 | Apr 3 | Apr 4
MARCH 29:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
John Prine is on a ventilator, critically ill with COVID-19.
The R0 number for Italy went down to 0.8 today. That number represents the number of people that an infectious person can be expected to infect during their infectious period. A number under 1.0 typically signifies that new cases should start going down.
There were 5217 new cases In Italy, but that was the lowest in 4 days, and less than the overall average of the prior 10.
In Spain, the number of new cases was the lowest in 6 days.
In the United States, the official tallies were less than on Saturday, with 18,469 new cases and 264 deaths. Officially, this is a nearly 50% drop in deaths from Saturday's total of 525; however, it appears that the final Sunday reports from New York may have been from earlier in the day as compared to Saturday. Monday's numbers, similarly, may show a "spike" due in part to including cases and deaths that weren't reported today.
REVISION: US numbers were revised later, to 19,913 new cases (a new record), and 362 deaths for Sunday.
Worldwide, the numbers are also officially down, to 58,864 new cases and 3110 deaths. Both totals represent a drop of more than 10% day-over-day, and are the lowest in several days. However, as with the US numbers, this may be due to when and how numbers were reported on Sunday.
REVISION: Due to the late US updates, world totals for the day were revised to 60,308 new cases and 3208 deaths.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 721,902 Cases and 33,965 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
Mar 29 | Mar 30 | Mar 31 | Apr 1 | Apr 2 | Apr 3 | Apr 4
MARCH 30:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Italy. Italy has -- MAYBE -- turned the corner for real. Yes, there were 4050 new confirmed cases and another 812 deaths. The new cases push Italy over the 100,000 mark to date. BUT: The new case count was the lowest since March 17th. There were 1590 cases in Italy closed out at "recovered," a new record. The net rise in active cases (that is, the new confirmed positives, less the combination of deaths plus full recoveries) was 1648, the lowest number since March 10, less than half of Saturday's total and barely a third of what it was on March 21. Most promising, in the hard hit Lombardia region, the total number of active cases decreased by 386.
That leaves Spain as the death capital of the world, with a near-record 913 deaths today. But Spain, too, is in terms of total new cases.
As for the US: Overall the numbers were the worst yet, with the total number of new cases exceeding 20,000 for the first time, and a record death count of 573 (and possibly still counting, pending some late reports). The total US death count now exceeds the death toll from 9/11.
New York, at least, is showing a slowing rate of of expansion; the 6,646 new cases there were in line with most recent days. New York has also dramatically ramped up testing. Less so in Florda, which has tested at only a small fraction of New York's rate, which stayed open for Spring Break and still doesn't have a statewide shutdown, and which is showing every sign of an imminent catastrophic rise in cases.
Worldwide, the numbers show a new record for deaths -- 3,718 as of this writing. New cases are up over Sunday to more than 61,000, though that's still below Saturday's record
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 785,775 Cases and 37,815 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
Mar 29 | Mar 30 | Mar 31 | Apr 1 | Apr 2 | Apr 3 | Apr 4
MARCH 31:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
More records for the United States: almost 25,000 new cases in a single day, and nearly 725 deaths. The long expected sharp rise in cases in Georgia, Florida and Texas - states that *still* don't have statewide lockdown mandatory lockdowns - and also in Louisiana have started.
REVISION: The US Death toll for 3/31 was revised upward after-hours to 912, including 372 deaths in New York.
Without a firm national lockdown policy in place, and with too many state leaders still refusing to take the necessary precautions, we can expect this pattern to continue; as one area of the country begins near its apex, another area blows up.
Italy continued to show some promise of turning the corner, with about the same number of new cases and deaths as yesterday. Spain's numbers were also similar to Monday's. Overall, though, the European countries had more new cases, especially in France, where more than 7500 new positive cases were recorded.
Tracking mechanisms are becoming ever more local, as well. I now know that at least 93 people in my zip code have tested positive; this is more than 5 times the national rate. I expect, of course, that testing is more wide spread in my zip code than it is nationally.
Worldwide, the numbers show a new record for deaths -- 4,378 as of this writing. New cases also hit a new record at 73,617. More than 850,000 total cases have now been recorded, and more than 42,000 deaths.
REVISION: The final death toll is now listed as 4535.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 856,910 Cases and 42,107 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
Mar 29 | Mar 30 | Mar 31 | Apr 1 | Apr 2 | Apr 3 | Apr 4
APRIL 1:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Let's look at Iceland.
Among countries with more than 100,000 people, Iceland has the 2nd highest confirmed attack rate in the world, at 357.5 cases per 100,000 people. Only Luxembourg is higher. Iceland started late, the virus was brought in by someone coming home from a ski vacation in Austria.
2 people have died from COVID-19 so far in Iceland. The "Case Fatality Rate" (CFR) in Iceland of 0.16% is, by far, the lowest of any country with more than 1000 total cases. Almost 20% of Icelandic cases are now listed as totally recovered, one of the highest rates so far in the world. The US, by comparison, has just 4% of all cases showing as totally recovered.
Iceland has tested more than 5% of its total population. This is, by a wide margin I believe, the highest anywhere. By contrast, New York, the most heavily tested state in the United States, is just now reaching 1%. Iceland, with a population of less than 370,000 people, has performed more COVID-19 tests than the US State of Georgia, with a population of more than 10.5 million people.
Iceland has a higher attack rate not because they have more cases, but because their increased testing is revealing more, including many who have COVID-19 but are asymptomatic. Those people are quickly put in isolation, thus cutting off their ability to infect others. Iceland is not in lockdown. But their approach appears to be working.
As for Georgia, there are already 4 times as many cases there despite a testing rate that's about 1/30th of that in Iceland. It's entirely reasonable to expect that the attack rate in Georgia may already be more than 1,000 cases per 100,000 people.
One other small positive sign in the world today outside Iceland: The total number of active cases in Switzerland went down today. This is the first time I've noticed an outright decrease in active cases in any major country since I started tracking.
It's useful on a day like today to keep in mind that it's going to get worse -- likely much worse -- before it gets better.
That's another way of saying that today was the worst day yet.
Worldwide, 76,872 new cases and 4,890 deaths as of this writing, with the likelihood that both numbers will be adjusted upward at some point. 5 different countries recorded more than 500 deaths. Tomorrow we will pass the 1,000,000 mark for total confirmed cases and 50,000 COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
In the United states, 26,473 new cases and 1,049 new deaths today, again with the likelihood that both numbers will be adjusted upward when late New York and west coast numbers are added. There have now been more than 5100 deaths in the US; today is the first time that any country in the world has exceeded 1,000 deaths.
New York now has more total cases than China, more active cases than Spain, and more deaths than Germany and Belgium combined.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 935,287 Cases and 47,192 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
Mar 29 | Mar 30 | Mar 31 | Apr 1 | Apr 2 | Apr 3 | Apr 4
APRIL 2:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
As expected, the global totals surpassed 1,000,000 total confirmed COVID-19 cases today, with more than 50,000 deaths. The one day totals of 79,747 new cases and 5,974 deaths (as of this writing) are new single day records.
In the US, 29,874 new cases and 968 deaths, which will both likely be revised as late reports come in. More than 6,000 people have now died in the US due to COVID-19.
Of particular note in the US numbers is Louisiana. Just two days ago, I highlighted Louisiana when it went from 484 new cases to 1212 new cases in one day. Today, there were 2726 new cases in Louisiana. That's a 463% jump in just 3 days. The latest victims there include Jazz great Ellis Marsalis Jr.
One recurring theme today is the extent to which the official numbers are systematically incorrect. Many news reports are now suggesting that China's original were dramatically underreported, perhaps by 90% or more. Russia, which had claimed to have COVID-19 under control, saw a dramatic rise in new cases today. France officially had a whopping 1355 deaths today, which would be a new single day record, except that it includes 884 deaths from nursing homes that had occurred over a period of several weeks and were only announced today. I've gone through the underreporting in Italy before, as well.
In short: The real numbers, whatever they are, are far worse than the counts of confirmed cases and confirmed deaths.
Back to the confirmed numbers: Switzerland saw a drop in the number of active cases for the 2nd consecutive day. And, Italy continued to see fewer than 5000 new cases.
The US, meanwhile, not only led the world in new cases, but had more new cases than the combined total of the next six countries. And in case anyone thinks it's just because the USA is bigger: those 6 countries have a combined population of about 420 million people.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,015,466 Cases and 53,190 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
Mar 29 | Mar 30 | Mar 31 | Apr 1 | Apr 2 | Apr 3 | Apr 4
APRIL 3:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Before getting to today's confirmed numbers, let's go to Italy, and a report from that country's biggest newspaper, "La Repubblica," as translated in a sidebar note at worldometers:
The real number of COVID-19 cases in the country could be 5,000,0000 (compared to the 119,827 confirmed ones) according to a study which polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to 10,000,000 or even 20,0000,000 after taking into account asymptomatic cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the Statale di Milano University.
This number would still be insufficient to reach herd immunity, which would require 2/3 of the population (about 40,000,000 people in Italy) having contracted the virus [source].
The number of deaths could also be underestimated by 3/4 (in Italy as well as in other countries) [source], meaning that the real number of deaths in Italy could be around 60,000.
If these estimates were true, the mortality rate from COVID-19 would be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based solely on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths, since it would be underestimating cases (the denominator) by a factor of about 1/100 and deaths by a factor of 1/4.
I've been posting at various points over the past two weeks about the extent to which the official numbers don't tell the full story. Yesterday it was central to my post, in which I said, "The real numbers, whatever they are, are far worse than the counts of confirmed cases and confirmed deaths."
What does it mean? I think it means a few things: 1) Although we're not yet at herd immunity in Italy, we're likely within a matter of days of being there. 2) With that in mind, we can start getting a clearer picture as to what the final confirmed numbers in Italy are likely to be. 3) using that as a guide, we can also start to get a clearer picture as to when apexes will be reached across the United States, what the ultimate toll is likely to be, and when (barring introduction of a vaccine or cure) we might be able to envision life returning to "normal."
Worldwide, there have been 82,941 new cases today, and 5,973 deaths. This includes another 1,120 from France, and a record 1,321 in the United States.
Overall in the United States, we had a record 32,284 new cases, including 10,423 in New York. The 2nd most new cases for any country in the world was in Spain, with 7,160.
Tomorrow, Spain will likely surpass Italy for the 2nd most confirmed cases overall, as well as the most deaths per capita of any country with more than 100,000 people. Notwithstanding that, per the report in La Repubblica, both countries likely have millions of people who have had the virus.
Switzerland saw a drop in the total number of active cases for the 3rd consecutive day. And, Italy continued to see fewer than 5000 new cases.
As for the US? We should probably be prepared, in some fashion, for 500,000 deaths. Barring a course correction here, that's where we're headed.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,098,386 Cases and 59,159 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
Mar 29 | Mar 30 | Mar 31 | Apr 1 | Apr 2 | Apr 3 | Apr 4
APRIL 4:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Italy had 4,805 new cases and 681 deaths attributed to COVID-19 today. Although that's the most new cases since March 29th, that's the fewest deaths in Italy since March 23rd. Per the worldometers data sources, the number of patients hospitalized in intensive care has declined today in Italy for the first time since the beginning of the epidemic.
Spain had 6969 new cases, the fewest since March 29th. The 749 deaths in Spain were the fewest so far in April.
Germany also had its lowest total of new cases so far in April.
In Switzerland, the total number of active cases dropped for the 4th consecutive day.
Austria had its fewest total number of new cases since March 17th, and for the first time saw a decline in the total number of active cases.
France, meanwhile, continues to update its data. Two days ago, France reported 884 deaths that had occurred over a period of several weeks in nursing homes. Yesterday, the French Government reported 17,827 additional cases and 532 additional deaths -- beyond the 884 from Thursday -- that had also not been reported previously. The additional cases caused the official worldwide total of new cases for April 3rd to spike to more than 100,000.
worldometers started publishing statistics of the number of tests per country and number of tests per capita.
Of the 10 countries with at least 20,000 confirmed cases, 9 are showing total number of tests (China is not). Of these, the numbers shown for Iran and Spain are clearly guesses, rounded to the nearest thousand, more or less. Looking at the other 7, here are the percentages of the populations tested:
The USA has run the most total number of tests in the world, at 1.632 million, but per capita we're only 39th. The USA is improving with respect to testing, but has a long way to go to catch up. Worldwide, there is a very strong correlation between widespread testing, and control of the spread of the virus.
Worldwide, there were 84,800 new cases and 5,801 deaths reported. These would be new records, except for the reporting anomalies in France over the past two days. The new cases pushed the world total above 1.2 million, with almost 65,000 deaths.
In the United States, there were 34,196 new cases and 1,331 deaths, both new records. New York suffered another 11,299 new cases and 630 deaths. New Jersey saw an additional 4229 new cases and 200 deaths. The overall number of US cases is now more than 311,000, with 8,452 deaths. 114,774 of those cases and 3,565 of the deaths have been in New York.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,201,933 Cases and 64,716 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
Mar 29 | Mar 30 | Mar 31 | Apr 1 | Apr 2 | Apr 3 | Apr 4
This blog post compiles the period of March 29th through April 4th. I have corrected some typos, augmented with links to original sources, and used some basic html to improve formatting; otherwise these are presented as-is from the original posts.
MARCH 29:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
John Prine is on a ventilator, critically ill with COVID-19.
The R0 number for Italy went down to 0.8 today. That number represents the number of people that an infectious person can be expected to infect during their infectious period. A number under 1.0 typically signifies that new cases should start going down.
There were 5217 new cases In Italy, but that was the lowest in 4 days, and less than the overall average of the prior 10.
In Spain, the number of new cases was the lowest in 6 days.
In the United States, the official tallies were less than on Saturday, with 18,469 new cases and 264 deaths. Officially, this is a nearly 50% drop in deaths from Saturday's total of 525; however, it appears that the final Sunday reports from New York may have been from earlier in the day as compared to Saturday. Monday's numbers, similarly, may show a "spike" due in part to including cases and deaths that weren't reported today.
REVISION: US numbers were revised later, to 19,913 new cases (a new record), and 362 deaths for Sunday.
Worldwide, the numbers are also officially down, to 58,864 new cases and 3110 deaths. Both totals represent a drop of more than 10% day-over-day, and are the lowest in several days. However, as with the US numbers, this may be due to when and how numbers were reported on Sunday.
REVISION: Due to the late US updates, world totals for the day were revised to 60,308 new cases and 3208 deaths.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 721,902 Cases and 33,965 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
MARCH 30:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Italy. Italy has -- MAYBE -- turned the corner for real. Yes, there were 4050 new confirmed cases and another 812 deaths. The new cases push Italy over the 100,000 mark to date. BUT: The new case count was the lowest since March 17th. There were 1590 cases in Italy closed out at "recovered," a new record. The net rise in active cases (that is, the new confirmed positives, less the combination of deaths plus full recoveries) was 1648, the lowest number since March 10, less than half of Saturday's total and barely a third of what it was on March 21. Most promising, in the hard hit Lombardia region, the total number of active cases decreased by 386.
That leaves Spain as the death capital of the world, with a near-record 913 deaths today. But Spain, too, is in terms of total new cases.
As for the US: Overall the numbers were the worst yet, with the total number of new cases exceeding 20,000 for the first time, and a record death count of 573 (and possibly still counting, pending some late reports). The total US death count now exceeds the death toll from 9/11.
New York, at least, is showing a slowing rate of of expansion; the 6,646 new cases there were in line with most recent days. New York has also dramatically ramped up testing. Less so in Florda, which has tested at only a small fraction of New York's rate, which stayed open for Spring Break and still doesn't have a statewide shutdown, and which is showing every sign of an imminent catastrophic rise in cases.
Worldwide, the numbers show a new record for deaths -- 3,718 as of this writing. New cases are up over Sunday to more than 61,000, though that's still below Saturday's record
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 785,775 Cases and 37,815 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
MARCH 31:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
More records for the United States: almost 25,000 new cases in a single day, and nearly 725 deaths. The long expected sharp rise in cases in Georgia, Florida and Texas - states that *still* don't have statewide lockdown mandatory lockdowns - and also in Louisiana have started.
| State | Cases, March 30 | Cases, March 31 |
| Georgia | 349 | 1085 |
| Florida | 754 | 1037 |
| Texas | 98 | 760 |
| Louisiana | 485 | 1212 |
REVISION: The US Death toll for 3/31 was revised upward after-hours to 912, including 372 deaths in New York.
Without a firm national lockdown policy in place, and with too many state leaders still refusing to take the necessary precautions, we can expect this pattern to continue; as one area of the country begins near its apex, another area blows up.
Italy continued to show some promise of turning the corner, with about the same number of new cases and deaths as yesterday. Spain's numbers were also similar to Monday's. Overall, though, the European countries had more new cases, especially in France, where more than 7500 new positive cases were recorded.
Tracking mechanisms are becoming ever more local, as well. I now know that at least 93 people in my zip code have tested positive; this is more than 5 times the national rate. I expect, of course, that testing is more wide spread in my zip code than it is nationally.
Worldwide, the numbers show a new record for deaths -- 4,378 as of this writing. New cases also hit a new record at 73,617. More than 850,000 total cases have now been recorded, and more than 42,000 deaths.
REVISION: The final death toll is now listed as 4535.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 856,910 Cases and 42,107 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
APRIL 1:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Let's look at Iceland.
Among countries with more than 100,000 people, Iceland has the 2nd highest confirmed attack rate in the world, at 357.5 cases per 100,000 people. Only Luxembourg is higher. Iceland started late, the virus was brought in by someone coming home from a ski vacation in Austria.
2 people have died from COVID-19 so far in Iceland. The "Case Fatality Rate" (CFR) in Iceland of 0.16% is, by far, the lowest of any country with more than 1000 total cases. Almost 20% of Icelandic cases are now listed as totally recovered, one of the highest rates so far in the world. The US, by comparison, has just 4% of all cases showing as totally recovered.
Iceland has tested more than 5% of its total population. This is, by a wide margin I believe, the highest anywhere. By contrast, New York, the most heavily tested state in the United States, is just now reaching 1%. Iceland, with a population of less than 370,000 people, has performed more COVID-19 tests than the US State of Georgia, with a population of more than 10.5 million people.
Iceland has a higher attack rate not because they have more cases, but because their increased testing is revealing more, including many who have COVID-19 but are asymptomatic. Those people are quickly put in isolation, thus cutting off their ability to infect others. Iceland is not in lockdown. But their approach appears to be working.
As for Georgia, there are already 4 times as many cases there despite a testing rate that's about 1/30th of that in Iceland. It's entirely reasonable to expect that the attack rate in Georgia may already be more than 1,000 cases per 100,000 people.
One other small positive sign in the world today outside Iceland: The total number of active cases in Switzerland went down today. This is the first time I've noticed an outright decrease in active cases in any major country since I started tracking.
It's useful on a day like today to keep in mind that it's going to get worse -- likely much worse -- before it gets better.
That's another way of saying that today was the worst day yet.
Worldwide, 76,872 new cases and 4,890 deaths as of this writing, with the likelihood that both numbers will be adjusted upward at some point. 5 different countries recorded more than 500 deaths. Tomorrow we will pass the 1,000,000 mark for total confirmed cases and 50,000 COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
In the United states, 26,473 new cases and 1,049 new deaths today, again with the likelihood that both numbers will be adjusted upward when late New York and west coast numbers are added. There have now been more than 5100 deaths in the US; today is the first time that any country in the world has exceeded 1,000 deaths.
New York now has more total cases than China, more active cases than Spain, and more deaths than Germany and Belgium combined.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 935,287 Cases and 47,192 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
APRIL 2:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
As expected, the global totals surpassed 1,000,000 total confirmed COVID-19 cases today, with more than 50,000 deaths. The one day totals of 79,747 new cases and 5,974 deaths (as of this writing) are new single day records.
In the US, 29,874 new cases and 968 deaths, which will both likely be revised as late reports come in. More than 6,000 people have now died in the US due to COVID-19.
Of particular note in the US numbers is Louisiana. Just two days ago, I highlighted Louisiana when it went from 484 new cases to 1212 new cases in one day. Today, there were 2726 new cases in Louisiana. That's a 463% jump in just 3 days. The latest victims there include Jazz great Ellis Marsalis Jr.
One recurring theme today is the extent to which the official numbers are systematically incorrect. Many news reports are now suggesting that China's original were dramatically underreported, perhaps by 90% or more. Russia, which had claimed to have COVID-19 under control, saw a dramatic rise in new cases today. France officially had a whopping 1355 deaths today, which would be a new single day record, except that it includes 884 deaths from nursing homes that had occurred over a period of several weeks and were only announced today. I've gone through the underreporting in Italy before, as well.
In short: The real numbers, whatever they are, are far worse than the counts of confirmed cases and confirmed deaths.
Back to the confirmed numbers: Switzerland saw a drop in the number of active cases for the 2nd consecutive day. And, Italy continued to see fewer than 5000 new cases.
The US, meanwhile, not only led the world in new cases, but had more new cases than the combined total of the next six countries. And in case anyone thinks it's just because the USA is bigger: those 6 countries have a combined population of about 420 million people.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,015,466 Cases and 53,190 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
APRIL 3:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Before getting to today's confirmed numbers, let's go to Italy, and a report from that country's biggest newspaper, "La Repubblica," as translated in a sidebar note at worldometers:
The real number of COVID-19 cases in the country could be 5,000,0000 (compared to the 119,827 confirmed ones) according to a study which polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to 10,000,000 or even 20,0000,000 after taking into account asymptomatic cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the Statale di Milano University.
This number would still be insufficient to reach herd immunity, which would require 2/3 of the population (about 40,000,000 people in Italy) having contracted the virus [source].
The number of deaths could also be underestimated by 3/4 (in Italy as well as in other countries) [source], meaning that the real number of deaths in Italy could be around 60,000.
If these estimates were true, the mortality rate from COVID-19 would be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based solely on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths, since it would be underestimating cases (the denominator) by a factor of about 1/100 and deaths by a factor of 1/4.
I've been posting at various points over the past two weeks about the extent to which the official numbers don't tell the full story. Yesterday it was central to my post, in which I said, "The real numbers, whatever they are, are far worse than the counts of confirmed cases and confirmed deaths."
What does it mean? I think it means a few things: 1) Although we're not yet at herd immunity in Italy, we're likely within a matter of days of being there. 2) With that in mind, we can start getting a clearer picture as to what the final confirmed numbers in Italy are likely to be. 3) using that as a guide, we can also start to get a clearer picture as to when apexes will be reached across the United States, what the ultimate toll is likely to be, and when (barring introduction of a vaccine or cure) we might be able to envision life returning to "normal."
Worldwide, there have been 82,941 new cases today, and 5,973 deaths. This includes another 1,120 from France, and a record 1,321 in the United States.
Overall in the United States, we had a record 32,284 new cases, including 10,423 in New York. The 2nd most new cases for any country in the world was in Spain, with 7,160.
Tomorrow, Spain will likely surpass Italy for the 2nd most confirmed cases overall, as well as the most deaths per capita of any country with more than 100,000 people. Notwithstanding that, per the report in La Repubblica, both countries likely have millions of people who have had the virus.
Switzerland saw a drop in the total number of active cases for the 3rd consecutive day. And, Italy continued to see fewer than 5000 new cases.
As for the US? We should probably be prepared, in some fashion, for 500,000 deaths. Barring a course correction here, that's where we're headed.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,098,386 Cases and 59,159 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
APRIL 4:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Italy had 4,805 new cases and 681 deaths attributed to COVID-19 today. Although that's the most new cases since March 29th, that's the fewest deaths in Italy since March 23rd. Per the worldometers data sources, the number of patients hospitalized in intensive care has declined today in Italy for the first time since the beginning of the epidemic.
Spain had 6969 new cases, the fewest since March 29th. The 749 deaths in Spain were the fewest so far in April.
Germany also had its lowest total of new cases so far in April.
In Switzerland, the total number of active cases dropped for the 4th consecutive day.
Austria had its fewest total number of new cases since March 17th, and for the first time saw a decline in the total number of active cases.
France, meanwhile, continues to update its data. Two days ago, France reported 884 deaths that had occurred over a period of several weeks in nursing homes. Yesterday, the French Government reported 17,827 additional cases and 532 additional deaths -- beyond the 884 from Thursday -- that had also not been reported previously. The additional cases caused the official worldwide total of new cases for April 3rd to spike to more than 100,000.
worldometers started publishing statistics of the number of tests per country and number of tests per capita.
Of the 10 countries with at least 20,000 confirmed cases, 9 are showing total number of tests (China is not). Of these, the numbers shown for Iran and Spain are clearly guesses, rounded to the nearest thousand, more or less. Looking at the other 7, here are the percentages of the populations tested:
| Rank | County | CFR |
| 1 | Switzerland | 1.77 |
| 2 | Germany | 1.10% |
| 3 | Italy | 1.09% |
| 4 | USA | 0.49% |
| 5 | France | 0.35% |
| 6 | UK | 0.27% |
| 7 | Turkey | 0.19% |
The USA has run the most total number of tests in the world, at 1.632 million, but per capita we're only 39th. The USA is improving with respect to testing, but has a long way to go to catch up. Worldwide, there is a very strong correlation between widespread testing, and control of the spread of the virus.
Worldwide, there were 84,800 new cases and 5,801 deaths reported. These would be new records, except for the reporting anomalies in France over the past two days. The new cases pushed the world total above 1.2 million, with almost 65,000 deaths.
In the United States, there were 34,196 new cases and 1,331 deaths, both new records. New York suffered another 11,299 new cases and 630 deaths. New Jersey saw an additional 4229 new cases and 200 deaths. The overall number of US cases is now more than 311,000, with 8,452 deaths. 114,774 of those cases and 3,565 of the deaths have been in New York.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,201,933 Cases and 64,716 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
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