COVID-19 Compilation: Part 4 - April 5-11, 2020
On March 14th, I began posting daily updates to my facebook page, regarding the status of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a backbone for this, I have used data from worldometers. I had no particular plan at the time, but as things have evolved I have kept going at one post per day, eventually settling on a more or less standard format and one topic per day.
This blog post compiles the period of April 5th through April 11th. I have corrected some typos, augmented with links to original sources, and used some basic html to improve formatting; otherwise these are presented as-is from the original posts.
Apr 5 | Apr 6 | Apr 7 | Apr 8 | Apr 9 | Apr 10 | Apr 11
APRIL 5:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
It may be prudent to take Sunday numbers with a bit of skepticism, as not all places report new numbers on Sundays. We saw this last Sunday, when there was a substantial drop in overall numbers.
With that said: At least for the moment, worldwide there are 71,417 new cases, the lowest number since March 30th. The worldwide death count of 4736 was the lowest since March 31st.
The USA has recorded 25,316 new cases, the lowest since March 31st, and 1,165 new deaths. 10 days ago, when discussing the impact of COVID-19, Dr. Deborah Birx of the White House Coronavirus Task Force said, "We have not seen an attack rate over 1 in 1,000." Now, we have. The national confirmed attack rate went over that mark today. It is likely that several thousand new cases, as well as hundreds of additional deaths, will be added to today's confirmed tallies for the USA later on. The confirmed US death total will pass 10,000 sometime in the next few hours.
Around the world, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who tested positive for COVID-19 10 days ago, was admitted to a hospital. Italy had its fewest deaths, 525, since March 19th. Spain had its fewest number of new cases since March 22nd. Switzerland had its fewest cases since March 18th, and Germany had its fewest cases since March 24th.
Again, these are Sunday numbers, and some are more trustworthy than others. Nonetheless, the signs from several European hotspots are the best we've seen in some time.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,273,179 Cases and 69,436 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
Apr 5 | Apr 6 | Apr 7 | Apr 8 | Apr 9 | Apr 10 | Apr 11
APRIL 6:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Good news first (insofar reports of new cases and deaths is ever "good"):
Italy had 3,599 new cases, its lowest number since March 17th. The total number of intensive care cases in Italy dropped for the 3rd consecutive day.
Spain and Germany had 5,029 and 3,252 new cases, respectively, their lowest numbers since March 22nd.
The total number of active cases in Switzerland is at its lowest level since March 28th, and Austria is at its lowest level since March 29th.
In the US, there were 30,331 new cases, substantially up from Sunday. This was expected due to how Sunday was reported. Even so, the grand total rose by less than 10% for the 2nd consecutive day. The two-day total of 55,647 is the lowest two-day total in 6 days.
Worldwide, there were 73,142 new cases and 5,229 deaths. Neither of those numbers are records. The number of cases and deaths in New York also subsided a bit, though at 8,898 new cases New York still had more than any other country in the world today. The United States is now over 10,000 total deaths.
I'll have more on the curve flattening in Italy, Spain, and the United States in tomorrow's update.
In more sobering news: Per a tweet by Mark Levine, Chair of the New York City Council health committee, "It’s not just deaths in hospitals which are up. On an average day before this crisis there were 20-25 deaths at home in NYC. Now in the midst of this pandemic the number is 200-215. *Every day*"
The difference, 180-185 deaths per day, is presumably due entirely to COVID-19. Considering the length of time that Levine is likely referencing, that means likely around 2,000 unreported COVID-19 deaths, just in New York City. This is similar (though not as extreme, in terms of percentages) to the situation that I referenced previously in Bergamo, Italy.
Also, ten different states reported more than 1,000 new cases today, an indicator that while New York's situation may be nearing its apex, that's not true in many other places. Also, just 7 states and DC have now tested at least 1% of their populations.
In other world news, China re-opened many tourist areas earlier today. We're all now watching to see if there's another wave of cases there.
Worldwide confirmed totals now sit at 1.35 million total cases and 74,654 deaths. US totals are 367,004 total cases and 10,871 deaths.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,346,566 Cases and 74,697 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
Apr 5 | Apr 6 | Apr 7 | Apr 8 | Apr 9 | Apr 10 | Apr 11
APRIL 7:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Today was the deadliest day yet for the COVID-19 pandemic. 7,380 people died worldwide, including 1,970 in the United States. Including John Prine.
For new cases, 84,915 worldwide and 33,331 in the US. Neither of these numbers are one day records, though they are both substantially higher than Monday's numbers.
About flattening the curve through lockdowns, etc.:
Throughout February, Italy's total number of cases was doubling every 2 to 3 days. As the country locked down, the length of time to double the total cases started to lengthen; that is, the growth rate was no longer exponential. By March 4th, it was taking 4 days to double; by March 15th, 5 days, and by March 23rd 7 days. The single day high for cases in Italy was on March 26th, with 6223 new cases. Today, even with more widespread testing, the total number of new cases is less than half of what it was then; the 3039 new cases was the smallest number since March 13th.
Spain took longer to lock down, and the total cases continued to double every 2 days through March 14th. The greatest number of cases on a single day came on March 26th, with 8271 new cases. It took until March 31st for Spain's rate to double to drop to 7 dates. Spain is about 3000 cases below that today (5267), but it may be another week or more for the numbers to fall much further.
In the US, the total of new cases continued to double every 2 days through March 20th, and we didn't get to 7 days for doubling until yesterday. The US record for most cases in a single day, 34,196, was set on April 4th, and today's number of 33,331 nearly equaled it. The perception of the US "curve" flattening was based at least somewhat on the US curve being hugely influenced by what's happening in New York. Now, as New York shows intermittent signs of being near its peak (though clearly not past peak, as New York registered 10,468 new cases today, an 18% jump over Monday's total), several other states are starting to see substantial increases.
One state that may yet see an increase is Wisconsin, where there was an in-person election today. Wisconsin has not been hit as hard as many other states... yet.
The good news is, the "curve," such as it is, is flattening in the US. But it's not a single curve, not consistent, and not as fast as what's going on elsewhere. Overall, the USA passed 400,000 total cases today, and is at 12,841 confirmed deaths.
Worldwide totals of confirmed cases and deaths are 1.43 million and 82,074, respectively.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,431,691 Cases and 82,074 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
Apr 5 | Apr 6 | Apr 7 | Apr 8 | Apr 9 | Apr 10 | Apr 11
APRIL 8:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 84,384 new confirmed COVID-19 cases today, bringing the total to more than 1.5 million. In addition, there were 6,414 deaths, bringing the total to 88,455.
In the US, there were 31,935 new cases and 1,940 deaths; the US totals are just under 435,000 cases and are nearing 14,800 deaths.
None of today's numbers are records, that's the good news.
New York has a record 779 deaths today, and passed 150,000 total cases. No other country in the world has as many cases, and save for tiny San Marino New York has the highest per capita death rate in the world. New York is also adjusting totals from past days: If a test comes back positive after the patient has died, then COVID-19 may be added retroactively as the cause of death; this has happened to about 900 cases for a 10-day span that I was watching, or more than 40% more than the totals that were initially reported for those dates. Officially, New York calls this "a lag in reports from laboratories" and "a large transfer of hospitalization data about patients who were hospitalized before April 6." From my perspective, it's just another signal that the officially reported numbers tell only a fraction of the story.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,518,518 Cases and 88,495 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
Apr 5 | Apr 6 | Apr 7 | Apr 8 | Apr 9 | Apr 10 | Apr 11
APRIL 9:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 85,010 new confirmed COVID-19 cases today, and 7,234 deaths. Worldwide confirmed totals are just over 1.6 million cases and 95k deaths, so the 100,000th confirmed death will occur on Good Friday.
In the US, there were 33,536 new cases and 1,900 deaths; the US totals are 468,556 confirmed cases and 16,681 deaths. The US will likely pass 500,000 confirmed cases on Good Friday.
None of the daily numbers are new records, though the 799 deaths in New York was a New York record.
In the early stages of COVID-19, we heard many comparisons of COVID-19 to the seasonal flu. So... One possible effect of the widespread lockdowns may be a decrease in the number of influenza cases and deaths, as well. Per the CDC: "Laboratory confirmed flu activity as reported by clinical laboratories continues to decrease sharply and is now low." Presently the CDC data is shown only through March 21st. As of that date, 6,367 influenza deaths had been recorded this season. Anticipating the weekly trends since then, that number may be closer to 7,000 by now. Note that the 6,367 does not include pneumonia deaths, which are listed separately in this area of the CDC site. Yet "official" reports say that there have been 16,000 flu deaths fo far this season.
This led to another factoid that I had not known before: When the CDC puts out "burden estimates" such as "24-000-63,000 flu deaths," as currently presented on the CDC site, that includes deaths from other causes: "We look at death certificates that have pneumonia or influenza causes (P&I), other respiratory and circulatory causes (R&C), or other non-respiratory, non-circulatory causes of death, because deaths related to influenza may not have influenza listed as a cause of death."
In the US, the COVID-19 totals are, so far as I'm aware, only from what's listed on the death certificate. In many (most?) locations, if the death isn't in a hospital, with a known positive test result and COVID-19 being directly responsible for the death (e.g., clearly causing the pneumonia that kills the patient), it's not listed as COVID-19.
That is, we have different counting methods, one of which dramatically increases the total in official reports (from 7,000 to 16,000), and the other of which dramatically decreases the official report totals (from whatever the actual COVID-19 number might be, to the 16,691 on today's worldometers summary.
Suffice to say, it's now completely safe to say that COVID-19 has killed many more Americans this year than has the seasonal influenza.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,603,437 Cases and 95,716 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
Apr 5 | Apr 6 | Apr 7 | Apr 8 | Apr 9 | Apr 10 | Apr 11
APRIL 10:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 94,625 new confirmed COVID-19 cases today, and 6,971 deaths. The new cases totals are slightly inflated due to adjustments in the UK and Ireland that added about 4 thousand new cases from prior days. Altogether, there are now just under 1.7 million confirmed cases and 102,684 deaths worldwide.
In the US, there were 33,752 new cases and a record 2,035 deaths; the new cases push the US over a half million total cases to 502,876, and to 18,747 deaths. Tomorrow, the US will become the country in the world with the most confirmed COVID-19 deaths, displacing Italy.
About the "Case Fatality Rate" (CFR): This is typically expressed as the number of fatalities divided by the total number of cases. Currently, of the 12 countries with the most cases, 6 have a CFR above 10%:
Death is a lagging indicator, so these percentages will inevitably rise. The same is true in the US, where the CFR has risen from 1.3% to 3.7% over the past several days.
But, as I've been detailing in these updates, neither the number of confirmed cases nor the number of confirmed deaths accurately reflect the spread or impact of COVID-19. For example, the report in La Repubblica on April 3rd suggested that the total amount of exposure could be anywhere from 50x to 200x the confirmed numbers of cases, and the number of deaths are likely 3x to 4x the confirmed numbers.
Tests for COVID-19 antibodies will also help show how many people have had the virus, regardless of whether they had been tested while being in an infectious state. One such study published yesterday in Germany suggests an exposure rate of about 100x the published numbers of cases.
With this information in hand, and more studies coming, we can start becoming more educated on questions such as: how close are areas of the United States to "herd immunity," how many people will end up getting the virus and dying from it, and when some level of post-virus normalcy might be restored. More on this tomorrow.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,697,356 Cases and 102,667 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
Apr 5 | Apr 6 | Apr 7 | Apr 8 | Apr 9 | Apr 10 | Apr 11
APRIL 11:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 80.908 new confirmed COVID-19 cases today, and 6,095 deaths. Both of these numbers are down more than 10% from Friday. Worldwide totals are 1.78 million confirmed cases and 108.779 deaths.
In the US, there were 30,003 new cases and 1,830 deaths, also both down more than 10% from Friday, US totals are 532,879 confirmed cases and 20,577 deaths.
Of course, one day does not a trend make.
The total number of active cases is going down in Germany, Switzerland and Austria, and Italy continues to see a decline in cases needing ICU. Austria, along with Norway, Denmark, and the Czech Republic, will be opening up parts of their countries within the next week.
A study published Thursday from University of Bonn of a randomized sample of 1,000 residents of the town of Gangelt, a town of about 12.5 thousand people in the Heinsberg District of North Rhine-Westphalia, that was hard hit due after a carnival there on February 15th.
As of the study date, Heinsberg had a confirmed total of 3.4% of its population with positive tests. That's approximately 24 times the national average for positive tests, and about 32 times the national average for mortality. The rates in the district have been so high that it has been referred to as "Germany's Wuhan." By comparison, New York City has a confirmed total of about 1.2% of its population with positive tests.
The study found that 2% of the population was currently infected and that 14% was carrying antibodies. After eliminating the overlap between the two groups, the study concluded that 15% of the town has been infected overall. The study also found a case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.37%, which actually manages to yield a lower number of fatalities per capita (0.06%) than the overall numbers for Heinsberg District (0.1%). This last may be due to deaths that occurred after the final date of the study.
What do the study results mean?
I see a few takeaways:
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,780,271 Cases and 108,822 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
Apr 5 | Apr 6 | Apr 7 | Apr 8 | Apr 9 | Apr 10 | Apr 11
This blog post compiles the period of April 5th through April 11th. I have corrected some typos, augmented with links to original sources, and used some basic html to improve formatting; otherwise these are presented as-is from the original posts.
APRIL 5:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
It may be prudent to take Sunday numbers with a bit of skepticism, as not all places report new numbers on Sundays. We saw this last Sunday, when there was a substantial drop in overall numbers.
With that said: At least for the moment, worldwide there are 71,417 new cases, the lowest number since March 30th. The worldwide death count of 4736 was the lowest since March 31st.
The USA has recorded 25,316 new cases, the lowest since March 31st, and 1,165 new deaths. 10 days ago, when discussing the impact of COVID-19, Dr. Deborah Birx of the White House Coronavirus Task Force said, "We have not seen an attack rate over 1 in 1,000." Now, we have. The national confirmed attack rate went over that mark today. It is likely that several thousand new cases, as well as hundreds of additional deaths, will be added to today's confirmed tallies for the USA later on. The confirmed US death total will pass 10,000 sometime in the next few hours.
Around the world, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who tested positive for COVID-19 10 days ago, was admitted to a hospital. Italy had its fewest deaths, 525, since March 19th. Spain had its fewest number of new cases since March 22nd. Switzerland had its fewest cases since March 18th, and Germany had its fewest cases since March 24th.
Again, these are Sunday numbers, and some are more trustworthy than others. Nonetheless, the signs from several European hotspots are the best we've seen in some time.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,273,179 Cases and 69,436 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
APRIL 6:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Good news first (insofar reports of new cases and deaths is ever "good"):
Italy had 3,599 new cases, its lowest number since March 17th. The total number of intensive care cases in Italy dropped for the 3rd consecutive day.
Spain and Germany had 5,029 and 3,252 new cases, respectively, their lowest numbers since March 22nd.
The total number of active cases in Switzerland is at its lowest level since March 28th, and Austria is at its lowest level since March 29th.
In the US, there were 30,331 new cases, substantially up from Sunday. This was expected due to how Sunday was reported. Even so, the grand total rose by less than 10% for the 2nd consecutive day. The two-day total of 55,647 is the lowest two-day total in 6 days.
Worldwide, there were 73,142 new cases and 5,229 deaths. Neither of those numbers are records. The number of cases and deaths in New York also subsided a bit, though at 8,898 new cases New York still had more than any other country in the world today. The United States is now over 10,000 total deaths.
I'll have more on the curve flattening in Italy, Spain, and the United States in tomorrow's update.
In more sobering news: Per a tweet by Mark Levine, Chair of the New York City Council health committee, "It’s not just deaths in hospitals which are up. On an average day before this crisis there were 20-25 deaths at home in NYC. Now in the midst of this pandemic the number is 200-215. *Every day*"
The difference, 180-185 deaths per day, is presumably due entirely to COVID-19. Considering the length of time that Levine is likely referencing, that means likely around 2,000 unreported COVID-19 deaths, just in New York City. This is similar (though not as extreme, in terms of percentages) to the situation that I referenced previously in Bergamo, Italy.
Also, ten different states reported more than 1,000 new cases today, an indicator that while New York's situation may be nearing its apex, that's not true in many other places. Also, just 7 states and DC have now tested at least 1% of their populations.
In other world news, China re-opened many tourist areas earlier today. We're all now watching to see if there's another wave of cases there.
Worldwide confirmed totals now sit at 1.35 million total cases and 74,654 deaths. US totals are 367,004 total cases and 10,871 deaths.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,346,566 Cases and 74,697 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
APRIL 7:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Today was the deadliest day yet for the COVID-19 pandemic. 7,380 people died worldwide, including 1,970 in the United States. Including John Prine.
For new cases, 84,915 worldwide and 33,331 in the US. Neither of these numbers are one day records, though they are both substantially higher than Monday's numbers.
About flattening the curve through lockdowns, etc.:
Throughout February, Italy's total number of cases was doubling every 2 to 3 days. As the country locked down, the length of time to double the total cases started to lengthen; that is, the growth rate was no longer exponential. By March 4th, it was taking 4 days to double; by March 15th, 5 days, and by March 23rd 7 days. The single day high for cases in Italy was on March 26th, with 6223 new cases. Today, even with more widespread testing, the total number of new cases is less than half of what it was then; the 3039 new cases was the smallest number since March 13th.
Spain took longer to lock down, and the total cases continued to double every 2 days through March 14th. The greatest number of cases on a single day came on March 26th, with 8271 new cases. It took until March 31st for Spain's rate to double to drop to 7 dates. Spain is about 3000 cases below that today (5267), but it may be another week or more for the numbers to fall much further.
In the US, the total of new cases continued to double every 2 days through March 20th, and we didn't get to 7 days for doubling until yesterday. The US record for most cases in a single day, 34,196, was set on April 4th, and today's number of 33,331 nearly equaled it. The perception of the US "curve" flattening was based at least somewhat on the US curve being hugely influenced by what's happening in New York. Now, as New York shows intermittent signs of being near its peak (though clearly not past peak, as New York registered 10,468 new cases today, an 18% jump over Monday's total), several other states are starting to see substantial increases.
One state that may yet see an increase is Wisconsin, where there was an in-person election today. Wisconsin has not been hit as hard as many other states... yet.
The good news is, the "curve," such as it is, is flattening in the US. But it's not a single curve, not consistent, and not as fast as what's going on elsewhere. Overall, the USA passed 400,000 total cases today, and is at 12,841 confirmed deaths.
Worldwide totals of confirmed cases and deaths are 1.43 million and 82,074, respectively.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,431,691 Cases and 82,074 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
APRIL 8:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 84,384 new confirmed COVID-19 cases today, bringing the total to more than 1.5 million. In addition, there were 6,414 deaths, bringing the total to 88,455.
In the US, there were 31,935 new cases and 1,940 deaths; the US totals are just under 435,000 cases and are nearing 14,800 deaths.
None of today's numbers are records, that's the good news.
New York has a record 779 deaths today, and passed 150,000 total cases. No other country in the world has as many cases, and save for tiny San Marino New York has the highest per capita death rate in the world. New York is also adjusting totals from past days: If a test comes back positive after the patient has died, then COVID-19 may be added retroactively as the cause of death; this has happened to about 900 cases for a 10-day span that I was watching, or more than 40% more than the totals that were initially reported for those dates. Officially, New York calls this "a lag in reports from laboratories" and "a large transfer of hospitalization data about patients who were hospitalized before April 6." From my perspective, it's just another signal that the officially reported numbers tell only a fraction of the story.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,518,518 Cases and 88,495 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
APRIL 9:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 85,010 new confirmed COVID-19 cases today, and 7,234 deaths. Worldwide confirmed totals are just over 1.6 million cases and 95k deaths, so the 100,000th confirmed death will occur on Good Friday.
In the US, there were 33,536 new cases and 1,900 deaths; the US totals are 468,556 confirmed cases and 16,681 deaths. The US will likely pass 500,000 confirmed cases on Good Friday.
None of the daily numbers are new records, though the 799 deaths in New York was a New York record.
In the early stages of COVID-19, we heard many comparisons of COVID-19 to the seasonal flu. So... One possible effect of the widespread lockdowns may be a decrease in the number of influenza cases and deaths, as well. Per the CDC: "Laboratory confirmed flu activity as reported by clinical laboratories continues to decrease sharply and is now low." Presently the CDC data is shown only through March 21st. As of that date, 6,367 influenza deaths had been recorded this season. Anticipating the weekly trends since then, that number may be closer to 7,000 by now. Note that the 6,367 does not include pneumonia deaths, which are listed separately in this area of the CDC site. Yet "official" reports say that there have been 16,000 flu deaths fo far this season.
This led to another factoid that I had not known before: When the CDC puts out "burden estimates" such as "24-000-63,000 flu deaths," as currently presented on the CDC site, that includes deaths from other causes: "We look at death certificates that have pneumonia or influenza causes (P&I), other respiratory and circulatory causes (R&C), or other non-respiratory, non-circulatory causes of death, because deaths related to influenza may not have influenza listed as a cause of death."
In the US, the COVID-19 totals are, so far as I'm aware, only from what's listed on the death certificate. In many (most?) locations, if the death isn't in a hospital, with a known positive test result and COVID-19 being directly responsible for the death (e.g., clearly causing the pneumonia that kills the patient), it's not listed as COVID-19.
That is, we have different counting methods, one of which dramatically increases the total in official reports (from 7,000 to 16,000), and the other of which dramatically decreases the official report totals (from whatever the actual COVID-19 number might be, to the 16,691 on today's worldometers summary.
Suffice to say, it's now completely safe to say that COVID-19 has killed many more Americans this year than has the seasonal influenza.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,603,437 Cases and 95,716 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
APRIL 10:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 94,625 new confirmed COVID-19 cases today, and 6,971 deaths. The new cases totals are slightly inflated due to adjustments in the UK and Ireland that added about 4 thousand new cases from prior days. Altogether, there are now just under 1.7 million confirmed cases and 102,684 deaths worldwide.
In the US, there were 33,752 new cases and a record 2,035 deaths; the new cases push the US over a half million total cases to 502,876, and to 18,747 deaths. Tomorrow, the US will become the country in the world with the most confirmed COVID-19 deaths, displacing Italy.
About the "Case Fatality Rate" (CFR): This is typically expressed as the number of fatalities divided by the total number of cases. Currently, of the 12 countries with the most cases, 6 have a CFR above 10%:
| Rank | County | CFR |
| 1 | Italy | 12.8% |
| 2 | UK | 12.1% |
| 3 | Belgium | 11.3% |
| 4 | Netherlands | 10.9% |
| 5 | France | 10.6% |
| 6 | Spain | 10.2% |
Death is a lagging indicator, so these percentages will inevitably rise. The same is true in the US, where the CFR has risen from 1.3% to 3.7% over the past several days.
But, as I've been detailing in these updates, neither the number of confirmed cases nor the number of confirmed deaths accurately reflect the spread or impact of COVID-19. For example, the report in La Repubblica on April 3rd suggested that the total amount of exposure could be anywhere from 50x to 200x the confirmed numbers of cases, and the number of deaths are likely 3x to 4x the confirmed numbers.
Tests for COVID-19 antibodies will also help show how many people have had the virus, regardless of whether they had been tested while being in an infectious state. One such study published yesterday in Germany suggests an exposure rate of about 100x the published numbers of cases.
With this information in hand, and more studies coming, we can start becoming more educated on questions such as: how close are areas of the United States to "herd immunity," how many people will end up getting the virus and dying from it, and when some level of post-virus normalcy might be restored. More on this tomorrow.
see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for more
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,697,356 Cases and 102,667 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
APRIL 11:
this past day's COVID-19 stats summary:
Worldwide, there were 80.908 new confirmed COVID-19 cases today, and 6,095 deaths. Both of these numbers are down more than 10% from Friday. Worldwide totals are 1.78 million confirmed cases and 108.779 deaths.
In the US, there were 30,003 new cases and 1,830 deaths, also both down more than 10% from Friday, US totals are 532,879 confirmed cases and 20,577 deaths.
Of course, one day does not a trend make.
The total number of active cases is going down in Germany, Switzerland and Austria, and Italy continues to see a decline in cases needing ICU. Austria, along with Norway, Denmark, and the Czech Republic, will be opening up parts of their countries within the next week.
A study published Thursday from University of Bonn of a randomized sample of 1,000 residents of the town of Gangelt, a town of about 12.5 thousand people in the Heinsberg District of North Rhine-Westphalia, that was hard hit due after a carnival there on February 15th.
As of the study date, Heinsberg had a confirmed total of 3.4% of its population with positive tests. That's approximately 24 times the national average for positive tests, and about 32 times the national average for mortality. The rates in the district have been so high that it has been referred to as "Germany's Wuhan." By comparison, New York City has a confirmed total of about 1.2% of its population with positive tests.
The study found that 2% of the population was currently infected and that 14% was carrying antibodies. After eliminating the overlap between the two groups, the study concluded that 15% of the town has been infected overall. The study also found a case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.37%, which actually manages to yield a lower number of fatalities per capita (0.06%) than the overall numbers for Heinsberg District (0.1%). This last may be due to deaths that occurred after the final date of the study.
What do the study results mean?
I see a few takeaways:
- Most importantly, we have antibody testing now.
- The number of people who have had the virus far exceeds the number of people who have tested positive. In Gangelt, it appears to be a ratio of more than 4 to 1.
- Even if the presence of antibodies means immunity from COVID-19 (which is not yet known to be true), a 15% exposure rate is still far below levels needed for herd immunity.
- If this region is at 15% exposure at its extreme level of known cases, it's not especially likely that any area elsewhere -- not even New York City -- is close to herd immunity yet. However, a 15% exposure level is still a significant portion of the population that will likely not get the virus (or get it again).
- Without a vaccine or a method to completely stamp out or at least isolate new cases, a 0.37% CFR still translates to hundreds of thousands of potential deaths in the US.
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,780,271 Cases and 108,822 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
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